Above the 40 (March 22, 2017) – A Bear Pause Before D.C. Puts Its First Official Stamp On the Trump Rally

AT40 = 35.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The sellers did their best to create follow-through selling to the previous day’s bearish breakdown. As has been the case … Read more

Above the 40 (March 21, 2017) – A (Brief?) Time to Get Bearish On the Stock Market

AT40 = 35.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) finally flipped the switch on the bearish threshold I have described since the last bullish breakout … Read more

Forex Critical – A Temporary Boost for the British Pound from A Hot Inflation Read

The Bank of England (BoE) has not raised interest rates since the Great Financial Crisis. During this time, there have been several inflation “scares” as inflation levitated well above the Bank’s 2% target. Through it all, the BoE stood resolute in choosing to see through the elevated inflation in order to avoid premature rate hikes … Read more

Trading Cocoa: A Declining Price Takes Its Toll But Brings Opportunity

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late August, 2016, I got ready to buy back into the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) as a part of my strategy to trade its price range at that … Read more

The Turkish Lira’s Comeback Slams Into Emerging Market Weakness

When I last wrote about the Turkish lira in mid-January, USD/TRY had pulled back sharply off a parabolic run-up. The iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) was also at the beginning of a dramatic bottoming pattern that was later confirmed with a close above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com When the Central Bank of the … Read more