It’s Already A Below Average September. Now What? – The Market Breadth

quick end

Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 is down 4.1% month-to-date. This loss makes this month a below average September for a maximum drawdown and fulfills September’s reputation as one of the index’s three most dangerous months of the year. As I noted last week, August’s extreme drawdown significantly increased the risk of September being worse … Read more

The Time Has Come…For A New Overbought Period – The Market Breadth

The Time Has Come For A New Overbought Period – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary This year’s Jackson Hole confab hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve delivered for financial markets. In his prepared speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued an historic and classic sound bite for all of the history of monetary policy (emphasis mine): “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of … Read more

Another Successful Exit From the 20% Rule for Buying EWZ (Brazil ETF)

An Early Trigger on the 20pct Rule for Buying EWZ (Brazil ETF) (Credit Ana Gaston - https://www.flickr.com/photos/26801385@N00/4960008406)

Just over two months ago, I aggressively bought ahead of an official trigger of the 20% rule for buying iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ). At the time, I explained my decision with three key reasons: I was also well aware that buying early subjected me to additional risks for the trading rule. Thus, I insisted … Read more

Bulls Hold Firm Against Calamity At the Edge of Critical Trendlines – The Market Breadth

Bulls Hold Firm Against Calamity At the Edge of Critical Trendlines – The Market Breadth (credit Sydney Oats - https://www.flickr.com/photos/57768042@N00/3402464379)

Stock Market Commentary Last week started with a calamity and ended with a restless calm. Critical trendlines held as support as buyers and bulls ground their way to a near full reversal of Monday’s loss. Ironically, the market even found relief in a “better than expected” weekly unemployment claims report. Claims fell 17,000 from the … Read more

Market Rotations Are Wearing Down Overbought Resistance – The Market Breadth

Market Rotations Are Wearing Down Overbought Resistance – The Market Breadth (Credit: Eduardo Tavares, https://www.flickr.com/photos/28761527@N06/3499009813)

Stock Market Commentary Bears still look ready to bow out, but they still have their paws firmly planted on high-tech stocks, especially semiconductors. The market rotations out of tech are nudging enough stocks higher, especially small caps, to rechallenge the threshold defining overbought conditions for market breadth. The stark divergence in stocks greatly reduces the … Read more

Super Hero Small Caps Ignite Overbought Conditions – The Market Breadth

AT50 (MMFI) soared to overbought conditions and its highest point in 6 months.

Stock Market Commentary The NASDAQ is still toppy, but no matter. Small cap stocks are playing the role of super hero. They made a major statement helping to drive market breadth into overbought conditions. These tiny tots turned super hero in historic fashion. Talk about igniting overbought conditions in style! Forget all that talk about … Read more

Semiconductor Setbacks Bolster Market Breadth – The Market Breadth

Semiconductor setbacks: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dipped by 3% away from its all-time high and reached for 20DMA support.

Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) is up 3.0% since summer trading began the day after the Memorial Day weekend. If not for the poor market breadth, the rally would look like a repeat of last year’s summer of loving stocks (sorry sell in May and go away folks). Semiconductor stocks, particularly NVIDIA Corporation … Read more

Did Retail Save the Market from An NVDA Hangover? – The Market Breadth

The SPDR SP Retail ETF (XRT) bounced away from 50DMA support and provided relief from an NVDA hangover.

Stock Market Commentary A plunge in market breadth on Wednesday made me expect a more bearish take on the markets for my next blog post. A sharp rebound led by strong earnings from various retail companies, quickly changed the narrative from a continued NVDA hangover to a bullish divergence and then a bullish setup. Friday’s … Read more

Did NVIDIA’s Earnings Surge to All-Time Highs Trigger Stock Market Exhaustion? – The Market Breadth

AT50 (MMFI) reversed almost half its gains from May after falling short of the overbought threshold.

Stock Market Commentary I looked to last week’s earnings from NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) with great anticipation. The indices gathered momentum with all-time highs and seemed to point to a big moment for NVDA. NVDA did indeed have a big moment, but it helped precious few. In fact, NVDA’s gain looked like a net loss. Buyer’s … Read more

Index All-Time Highs Prime the Pump for NVDA Earnings – The Market Breadth

Index All-Time Highs Prime the Pump for NVDA Earnings (Credit: The Pulse - https://www.chattanoogapulse.com/local-news/automotive/gas-prices-fall-sharply-over-the-past-week-dropping-ne/)

Stock Market Commentary The simple and quiet breakout for the stock market found follow-through last week. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs during the week. The April CPI (consumer price index) report paved the way on Wednesday’s all-time highs. A softer than “expected” number revived hopes for a rate cut … Read more