Iron Ore Reverses A Major Breakout While Bulls Stick By the Australian Dollar

The list of asset prices that have completely reversed their post-election gains continues to expand. Last week, iron ore officially joined that list…and the sell-off continues apace. On Tuesday night, April 18th, Business Insider reported: “According to Metal Bulletin, the spot price for benchmark 62% fines fell 4.6% to $63.20 a dry tonne, extending its … Read more

Above the 40 (April 13, 2017) – The S&P 500 Suffers A Convincing End to Bullish Divergence

AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The 50-day moving average (DMA) is no longer golden. It figures that on a day … Read more

Above the 40 (April 11, 2017) – The Stock Market’s Persistent Yet Uncomfortable Bullish Divergence

AT40 = 54.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 64.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.1 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The stock market has become incrementally more dangerous, yet buyers and bulls continue to succeed … Read more

A Wavering Economic Backdrop Suggests A Top for the Australian Dollar

Australia just celebrated setting a (modern era) world record for the longest string of quarters without a recession. Yet Australia’s economic backdrop appears to be wavering. This week’s labor force survey could provide a critical point of relief or pile on yet more concern. Iron Ore’s Latest Plunge I begin with iron ore – Australia’s … Read more

Above the 40 (April 7, 2017) – An Incrementally More Dangerous Stock Market

AT40 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The timetable for a May end to this period of extremely low volatility looks like … Read more