ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Checking the Google Trends Momentum Check The Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) continues to perform well as a signal for a bottom in downward price action for Bitcoin (BTC/USD). Even the brutal crypto winter has delivered two more examples of how this indicator works. As a reminder, the GTMC signals a potential bottom when (worldwide) … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Fears of a recession are running high as the Federal Reserve scrambles to normalize monetary policy. The Fed is racing against an economic clock. It needs to get rates as close to the “neutral rate” as possible before a weakening economy finally forces them to reverse course. The higher the rates when … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: A little over a month ago, the prospects of a bottom for this bear market got me a little more interested in individual stocks. Unfortunately, the bear market rubble expanded shortly after that. Amid the rubble are crushed gems and false hopes. These stock charts follow up on my initial reads and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The summer of discontent is proving more abrupt, sharp, and violent than I expected. The promising rally out of the shadow of the bear stopped cold at the steep downtrends formed by 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below). A test of 50DMA resistance (the red lines below) … Read more
After presenting my conditions for bottoming across the collection of ARK funds, the funds suffered a serious setback in the bottoming process. Some funds hit new lows and others cracked critical support levels. The stock market’s rebound from oversold conditions helped turn the tide and sentiment on the ARK funds. Interestingly, performance relative to key … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Central banks are scrambling in the face of what is becoming a summer of discontent. Last week was chock full of news from monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England (BoE), and even the Swiss National Bank all took action against inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) held an (underwhelming) … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Over two years ago, a lethal virus forced the economy to shut down. The Federal Reserve was one of many to rush to the rescue with historic sums of liquidity. Today, the economy stubbornly runs hot, and the Fed is rushing to “shut down” financial markets to cool down economic activity “just … Read more
At the time of typing, a steep sell-off continues in Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and Ethereum (ETH/USD). Typically, I would jump in and accumulate some more of either or both cryptocurrencies. However, after I took a step back to review the charts, I realized Bitcoin and Ethereum are in precarious positions with support melting away. Both cryptocurrencies … Read more
A month ago I laid out the case and conditions for bottoming across the collection of ARK funds. The key pivot rested with the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It still is the first and only of the pre-pandemic ARK funds to break its pandemic era closing low. Over the past month, ARKF struggled mightily … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: With the prospects of a bottom for this bear market, I am getting a little more interested in individual stock narratives. The bear market rubble is extensive. The gems are dispersed across a wide area. These stock charts provide one framework for sifting through the trash and the opportunity. {note: in this … Read more