ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: Despite recent bouts of trading in or like a bear market, market breadth has somehow managed to avoid closing in oversold conditions. In fact, the last “official” oversold period was 518 trading days ago. Yet, since the NASDAQ topped out in November, market breadth has dropped into and out of oversold on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Trading extremes led to a snapback rally as expected. However, the rally was short-lived as bear market action quickly resumed. The stock market looks like it is on the way to oversold trading conditions as March closing lows failed to hold as support. Fear is palpable as traders and investors scramble to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The runway for (short-term) bearishness has greatly shortened. The classic safety trades sprung to life to add exclamation points to the broadening sell-off. After over 6 weeks of near relentless losses, the Japanese yen (FXY) caught a strong bid. Inflation fears returned to the background as traders eased into Treasury bonds (per … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After much resistance to Fed hawkishness, the U.S. stock market gave way to fresh bearishness. The major indices dropped into new depths of the bear den. The stocks below are snapshots of the latest deterioration in the price action and decline in the technical health underlying the stock market. The ARK funds … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market chopped into bearish conditions in the previous week. My reasons for bearishness were not obvious, but, as is typical, market breadth dynamics led my thinking. Last week, the stock market flagged very clear signs of bearishness. Resistance to the Fed in the form of disbelief in the process of … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: As expected, the S&P 500 took the spotlight in the latest week of trading. Earlier I noted that the index was a breakdown away from bearish trading conditions. The S&P 500 obliged and dropped under its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below). However, the bearish call is challenging because sellers … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The S&P 500 takes the spotlight going into trading this week. The index is a breakdown away from officially ushering in a return to bearish trading conditions. Trading last week completed the stock market’s return to the reality of macro conditions. Fed-speak dominated the air as sellers followed through on topping out … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: How many times and how many ways does the Fed need to communicate its seriousness about normalizing monetary policy and fighting inflation? Apparently, the answer for Fed-speak is many times and a LOT of ways. Fed Governor Lael Brainard delivered one way with a speech on Tuesday titled “Variation in the Inflation … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I gave the summary for the week in my last “Market Breadth” post. I will just add here that the stock charts are full of images of a stock market running low on fuel. I tell just a small part of the narrative below. Stock Chart Reviews – Below the 50-day moving … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created massive human misery and a historic press of global economic sanctions. With war comes scarcity and the allocation of resources to destroying the resources of others. Financial markets are scrambling to adjust to the new global wartime economy. These charts are just a snapshot of some … Read more