ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The trading week started with a powerful jolt to the market. The major catalyst was a rumor that President Trump was considering a 90-day delay on tariffs, triggering a nearly 30-minute, $2.5 trillion rally. While ultimately unfounded, the rumor represented the kind of response markets expect: when financial markets panic, policy-makers panic. … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A good friend of mine introduced me to the phrase – now we’re cooking with gas! In today’s context, this phrase refers to some startling developments in the rolling crash in the stock market. The technical damage was thorough, unrelenting, and nearly merciless. Chaos in economic policy chaos has fully transferred into … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 delivered only a brief respite from the bear market when it broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) to start the week. Two days later, the bear market reasserted itself. Another two days later, the sellers punched an exclamation mark on the bear market as a “hot” inflation … Read more
Stock Market Commentary And so a bear market ends, for the S&P 500 at least. The stock market enjoyed a strong follow-through day supported by previous oversold conditions. To represent the most recent technical developments, I created a well-defined area for the bear market called the “area of agitation”. The S&P 500’s breakout above this … Read more
Stock Market Commentary There is no support in a bear market. The market is extremely volatile, and conditions are changing daily. The market is showing clear signs of weakness, with all major trends pointing downward. The mixed messages from yesterday (Thursday) are converging more clearly on the messages of a bear market. The long-term, mid-term, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market presented mixed messages amidst ongoing volatility. While a “softer than expected” CPI report presumably triggered an initial fragile rebound, I see persistent underlying weakness. Apple Inc. (AAPL) represents this fragility with a continued bearish breakdown casting a shadow over the broader market. Apple Inc. (AAPL) declined 1.8% and confirmed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I used key indicators in late February to issue a red flag warning on the stock market. I used additional indicators to serve as caution even as I flipped to a bullish posture on the stock market last week. Now, a fresh indicator of caution has emerged in the form of an … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The current administration’s policy of long-term growth through short-term pain in the form of austerity came into clear focus last week. I earlier introduced this concept in “Growth Scare or Overreaction – An Oversold Market or Something Worse?“. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent laid out the strategy in detailed economic … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Stock market angst reached a kind of crescendo last week. Poor economic data and bad news – including a plunge in consumer confidence, a 180 degree reversal in the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP growth projection from +2.3% to -1.5%, risk-off trading in cryptocurrencies (apparently due to a massive hack of ByBit), and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked ready to follow through on leaving its troubles behind. The S&P 500 even made a new all-time high. Everything seemed to fall apart on Friday. The final release of consumer expectations as measured by the University Michigan confirmed earlier preliminary numbers: inflation expectations soared and consumer sentiment tanked. … Read more