ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The day after ShotSpotter (SSTI) reported earnings last month, the stock gained 6.4%. The buyers returned for the next four days to confirm a breakout above resistance at the 50-day moving average (DMA). SSTI closed the week up 32.1% post-earnings, and the stock looks like it finally wants to bottom. The 50DMA is turning upward … Read more
An Inescapable Truth In June, 2018, I made the following claims and observations (with fresh emphasis): “…at the end of the day, Trump is determined to drive the U.S. trade deficit as close to zero as possible. This cannot happen without some substantial economic disruptions. To the extent the market refuses to price in these … Read more
The British pound (FXB) is not the only currency trading in well-defined chaos. The Turkish lira stumbled into the week in the wake of the political uncertainty and forex chaos caused by the cancellation of the results of Istanbul’s recent municipal elections. USD/TRY soared at one point about 3%. The renewed political uncertainty reportedly comes … Read more
The S&P 500 (SPY) opened the trading day strong but spent the rest of the day fading to a much smaller gain. (The percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), T2108 (AT40), ended the day with an ominous loss that leaves it hanging below the 70% overbought threshold). This near day-long … Read more
“I will be watching for signs of the durability of this latest Bitcoin bottom. If search interest wanes quickly, I will expect the recovery phase to fizzle relatively quickly like last time. If search interest remains robust, I will accordingly expect the recovery period to last longer.” This is what I wrote on January 18, … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in October, 2017 for September, 2017. At the time, I lamented having too small an exposure to home builders while the entire sector rallied nearly non-stop. I was counting on seasonal patterns to deliver at least one buyable dip ahead of the seasonally strong period starting in … Read more
Almost two months ago I wrote about the strong earnings profile and prospects of ShotSpotter (SSTI), a gunfire detection and location technology company. At the time, I noted that President Trump’s threat of “fire and fury” aimed at North Korea seemed to drown out the news. Today, in the wake of a horrible tragedy of … Read more
As North Korean President Kim Jung Un and U.S. President Donald Trump shot barbs and threats at each other – threats which included Trump’s promises of fire and fury and perhaps more – ShotSpotter (SSTI), a gunfire detection and location technology company, reported earnings. I think the promising results were lost in the crossfire and … Read more
AT40 = 52.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary One out of three. The last event of Thursday’s Trifecta had the only notable impact on financial markets. With … Read more
Another Presidential-level scandal has engulfed Brazil. On the morning of Thursday, May 18th, news hit the wires that Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. The crisis deepened after Brazil’s Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for an investigation into the bribery allegations From Reuters: “Brazil’s President Michel Temer on Thursday defiantly said he would … Read more