T2108 Update (December 23, 2016) – Caution Emerges As the Trump Rally Leans On the Santa Claus Effect for Rest

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Forex Critical: Yen Bears Take Over, Euro Bears Continue Shrinking

A little over two weeks ago, I wrote “Yen Bulls Finally Back Down” to mark an important milestone: for the first time in a year, currency speculators went net short the Japanese yen (FXY). I closed out my long USD/JPY position and waited for the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting as well as confirmation of the … Read more

T2108 Update (December 19, 2016) – The S&P 500 Makes A Feeble Return to Overbought Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 15, 2016) – The S&P 500 Struggles to Return to Pre-Fed Momentum

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 14, 2016) – A Fed Hangover Bursts the Overbought Rally

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Euro Flush: Buyers Take Back Control For Now

By now, traders should know the drill on these highly anticipated events that promise dire potential consequences… Traders build positions in anticipation of or to hedge against the potentially “adverse” outcome of the highly anticipated event. An outcome interpreted as adverse occurs and markets respond accordingly. The expected response to an adverse outcome turns out … Read more

Turkey’s First Rate Hike In Nearly 3 Years Fails to Stem Lira’s Losses

“The slowdown in aggregate demand contributes to the fall in inflation. Yet, exchange rate movements due to recently heightened global uncertainty and volatility pose upside risks on the inflation outlook. The Committee decided to implement monetary tightening to contain adverse impact of these developments on expectations and the pricing behavior.” – The Central Bank of … Read more

Yen Bulls Finally Back Down

A full seven months ago I speculated that “maximum yen bullishness” was reaching feverish levels. As a result, I concluded that a bottom had to be imminent in USD/JPY even as the momentum at that time seemed to point to that bottom happening around 7% lower at 100. I acknowledged the potential for making an … Read more

The British Pound’s Latest Brexit Surge Could Signal the Next Sentiment Change

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Before Thursday’s open for trading in the U.S. (December 1, 2016), the British pound (FXB) experienced another one of those “quick trigger” moves in reaction to Brexit-related headlines. I use “quick … Read more

T2108 Update (November 28, 2016) – The S&P 500 Takes A Breather On Overbought’s Edge

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more