ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
AT40 = 28.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (downgrade from cautiously bullish) Commentary Buyers are starting to look exhausted. Based on the topsy-turvy reaction to the minutes from the last meeting … Read more
NOW this is getting really interesting. I am still in learning mode on cryptocurrencies. Every twist and turn is like a new flower patch around the bend. When I last wrote about the price patterns in Bitcoin a week and a half ago, I gave a qualified call for a bottom in the price of … Read more
At the beginning of the year, I drew up a list of stocks that Morgan Stanley (MS) recently included in 13G filings to disclose significant stakes. My interest was sparked by a surprising stake in Xunlei Limited (XNET), and I was further surprised to find a notable list of speculative stakes by Morgan. Now that … Read more
AT40 = 27.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.3 (drop of 22.9%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish PROLOGUE Valentine’s Day, February 14th, was a great day in the stock market and a fantastic validation of my strategizing … Read more
A month ago, I described the Japanese yen (FXY) as a currency on edge given a sharp and abrupt response to a feared tightening cycle from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). So far, no tightening cycle has launched, but the yen has steadily strengthened over the last month. For example, USD/JPY broke down below support … Read more
AT40 = 12.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (day 1 of the second oversold period in 4 days) AT200 = 39.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-year low) VIX = 33.5 (range from 24.4 to 36.2) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (with oh so many … Read more
AT40 = 24.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.7 (range from 21.2 to 31.6) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Buyers failed their first post-oversold test. The S&P 500 (SPY) rallied just enough to peak over resistance … Read more
AT40 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 47.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 30.0 (19.7% decrease, intraday high of 50.3) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The first oversold period in about two years ended after just one day. As a reminder, … Read more
“I will be watching for signs of the durability of this latest Bitcoin bottom. If search interest wanes quickly, I will expect the recovery phase to fizzle relatively quickly like last time. If search interest remains robust, I will accordingly expect the recovery period to last longer.” This is what I wrote on January 18, … Read more
AT40 = 19.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – first oversold day after 19 percentage point plunge AT200 = 45.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 37.3 (115.6% increase! The largest since at least 1990) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish – oh so many caveats … Read more