ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Turkish lira is in trouble again. Last week, USD/TRY hit an all-time high amid more dire headlines for the Turkish economy and the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). On April 3rd, Bloomberg reported the following issues: 7.4% GDP growth in 2017 is overheating the economy. Turkish companies … Read more
AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same … Read more
When I last wrote about the Mexican peso three months ago, I described the NAFTA-driven context surrounding the breakdown of USD/MXN below its 50-day moving average (DMA). I was still holding onto a long-standing short on USD/MXN. I managed to keep holding this short until Wednesday evening (April 4, 2018). Source: TradingView.com I closed my … Read more
I heard commentary after the Fed’s proclamation on monetary policy on March 21st that the Fed is “one vote away” from 4 rate hikes this year. Yet, something strange happened along the way to over-speculation on the number of rate hikes in 2018: the traders putting their money on the line on the 30-Day Fed … Read more
AT40 = 49.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.8 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Another proclamation on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve is just 3 trading days away. Hanging in the balance is the S&P … Read more
In my last post on Bitcoin (BTC-USD), I worried about the sustainability of the $6000 bottom. I am now even more worried. Google Search interest continues to wane on Bitcoin. Ever since December and the major top under $20,000, search interest in “Bitcoin” has trended downward with spikes in search activity also trending lower. Source: … Read more
AT40 = 48.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 (11.5% drop) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The (expected) plunge in the volatility index, the VIX, says it all…the stock market is ready to return to its … Read more
AT40 = 27.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary President Trump has been talking about taking unilateral trade actions since he was campaigning in 2016. The rhetoric heated up … Read more
New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had his say with Congress this week and some of the conventional financial media and pundits have been shrill with speculation about the potential for four rate hikes in 2018 as a result of Powell’s word choices and tone. This number of hikes is reportedly one more hike than … Read more
AT40 = 25.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 43.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.9% Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary As I feared was likely, the S&P 500 (SPY) wasted no time in breaking its 50-day moving average (DMA) support. … Read more