Over-Reaction to Yellen Rate “Guidance” Helps Drive Fresh Breakout for the U.S. Dollar Against the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This is from Janet Yellen’s first Federal Reserve press conference as Fed Chair (starting around the 37:00 mark). Yellen answered a question from a reporter from Reuters on when rates … Read more

What I Learned Shorting the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The euro (FXE) has been one stubborn currency. The short euro trade taught me and reminded me to be patient, to stay focused on the underlying thesis until it is proven … Read more

Carney Delivers A Buying Opportunity in the British Pound With Talk Of “Evolving Guidance”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “Escape velocity won’t come cheap.” – Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), January 24, 2014 This was Governor Carney’s warning to the audience at the Davos CBI British … Read more

Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of … Read more

January Jobs Report Positives: Residential Construction Momentum and the Participation Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 10, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. non-farm labor report for January, 2014 seemed to get universal disapproval. Yet, the stock market soared in response anyway. The bearish tidings that began last week week have almost … Read more

What the Homebuilders Said to Close Out 2013: All Eyes On the 2014 Spring Selling Season

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The above quote pretty much sums up the attitude of homebuilders (ITB) going into 2014. It sounds like a classic sales pitch from a real estate agent, but the evidence … Read more

U.S. Jobs Report Pushes Australian Dollar Into Target, Australian Jobs Up Next

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I started this year with a bullish bias on the Australian dollar (FXA) with a short-term target set at the 50-day moving average (DMA) (see Australian Dollar Starts The Year With … Read more

Canada’s Poor Year of Employment Should Pressure Bank of Canada and Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It looks like the Bank of Canada was indeed setting the groundwork for easing monetary policy when it sounded fresh alarms about the Canadian economy last year. The extremely weak employment … Read more

U.K. Shopping Spree Sends the Pound Soaring

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 17, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The United Kingdom’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported retail sales today that suggest consumers went on a literal shopping spree in December, 2013. {snip} The ONS reported the most notable … Read more

Euro Continues 2014 Weakness As Inflation Drops Again, Unemployment Remains At Record

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Weakness continues for the euro (FXE) as 2014 seems to be confirming expectations I have outlined in previous posts. On January 7th, Eurostat reported eurozone inflation dropped to 0.8% in December … Read more