A Stubbornly Strong Australian Dollar Introduces A Risk Factor into Economic Forecasts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 26, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its Resources and Energy quarterly for the June, 2014 quarter containing a notably more cautious tone toward the Australian dollar (FXA) … Read more

Plunge In Australia’s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting accustomed to the idea that iron ore prices could plunge without impacting the Australian dollar (FXA). Now comes a surprisingly large plunge in Australia’s trade balance. On … Read more

Residential Employment Plows Ahead As Housing Indicators Stabilize

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest U.S. non-farm employment report showed another strong print for employment in residential construction. For the 31st month in a row, seasonally adjusted employment in residential construction showed year-over-year growth. … Read more

Poor Wholesale Sales Deliver An Excuse to Sell the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Since reaching an inflation-adjusted high (at the time) in May, 2012, Canada’s wholesale sales have been relatively stagnant except a one-month surge the following May that beat the high (I used … Read more

The Bank of Canada Welcomes A Weaker Currency And A Bullish U.S. Economy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 3, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On January 22, 2014, the Bank of Canada left its target overnight interest rate at 1%. However, the Canadian dollar (FXC) slid quickly against the U.S. dollar anyway as the currency … Read more

Continued Momentum in Residential Construction Employment Doesn’t Stop Slide in Home Builder Shares

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) After employment in residential construction put on a surprisingly strong showing amidst a generally dismal January employment report, I decided to keep closer tabs on this important indicator of health in … Read more

Over-Reaction to Yellen Rate “Guidance” Helps Drive Fresh Breakout for the U.S. Dollar Against the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This is from Janet Yellen’s first Federal Reserve press conference as Fed Chair (starting around the 37:00 mark). Yellen answered a question from a reporter from Reuters on when rates … Read more

What I Learned Shorting the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The euro (FXE) has been one stubborn currency. The short euro trade taught me and reminded me to be patient, to stay focused on the underlying thesis until it is proven … Read more

Carney Delivers A Buying Opportunity in the British Pound With Talk Of “Evolving Guidance”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “Escape velocity won’t come cheap.” – Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), January 24, 2014 This was Governor Carney’s warning to the audience at the Davos CBI British … Read more

Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of … Read more