A New Year’s Re-Evaluation of the Drivers for Bullishness On the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Jan 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On December 23rd, Statistics Canada reported another strong showing for Canada’s GDP. This time it was manufacturing that produced the unexpectedly strong result. Real GDP increased 0.3% in October. {snip} Given … Read more

Bank of Canada Gets More Bearish Ahead of More News of Employment Stagnation

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On June 4th, the Bank of Canada hit the “repeat button” by maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1%. The rest of the statement was not a repeat: it … Read more

Using the Fed’s Report On Economic Well-Being To Gauge Prospects for the Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On May 27th, the Federal Reserve Board published the second annual results of its Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). {snip} Based on the Fed’s survey results, I concluded that … Read more

A Plunge In Business Confidence and Conditions Help Drive the Australian Dollar Ever Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 9, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The DailyFx lists the the National Australia Bank’s (NAB) monthly indices for Business Confidence and Business Conditions as having a low impact on currency markets. As a result, I do not … Read more

The Australian Dollar Firms As Another Fed Over-Reaction Helps to Pause Currency Trends

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 9, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Not even another poor jobs report – unemployment rate up from 6.0% to 6.1% and a loss of 29,700 employed persons – could keep the Australian dollar (FXA) down. During the … Read more

A Deceptively Strong August Jobs Report for Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The August employment report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) delivered a tremendous surge in jobs. The additional 121,000 people employed in August far exceeded the “consensus forecast” of 15,000. … Read more

More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar’s Multi-Year Weakness Fails to Curb Trade Deficit

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) A drop in the Australian dollar (FXA) toward a fresh six-year low has not stopped Australia’s trade balance from worsening. {snip} Source: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Source for currency … Read more

Insurance Policies for Financial Stability: the UK Tightens Housing Policies and Further Tunes Its Warnings

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “Historically low levels of interest rates globally and the current backdrop of low volatility across financial markets may encourage market participants to underestimate the likelihood and severity of tail risks. There … Read more