economy

The Australian Dollar Firms As Another Fed Over-Reaction Helps to Pause Currency Trends

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 9, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Not even another poor jobs report – unemployment rate up from 6.0% to 6.1% and a loss of 29,700 employed persons – could keep the Australian dollar (FXA) down. During the … Read more

A Deceptively Strong August Jobs Report for Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 11, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The August employment report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) delivered a tremendous surge in jobs. The additional 121,000 people employed in August far exceeded the “consensus forecast” of 15,000. … Read more

More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar’s Multi-Year Weakness Fails to Curb Trade Deficit

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) A drop in the Australian dollar (FXA) toward a fresh six-year low has not stopped Australia’s trade balance from worsening. {snip} Source: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Source for currency … Read more

Insurance Policies for Financial Stability: the UK Tightens Housing Policies and Further Tunes Its Warnings

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) “Historically low levels of interest rates globally and the current backdrop of low volatility across financial markets may encourage market participants to underestimate the likelihood and severity of tail risks. There … Read more

The Swiss Franc Quietly Returns to Early 2013 Levels

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 17, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) In August, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) took a series of extreme measures to attempt to arrest an accelerating strengthening in the Swiss franc (FXB). These measures culminated in establishing … Read more

The Canadian Dollar Overshadowed by A Strong U.S. Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 8, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Canada experienced two extremely strong monthly jobs reports going into the report for November, 2014. Both positive reports were generally overlooked by currency markets. This time around, Canada’s job report did … Read more

The Bank of Canada Confirms A Potentially Important Turning Point

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of Canada once again left its overnight target interest rate at 1% in its latest monetary policy decision. An important change this time around came in the form of … Read more

A Strong Canadian GDP Report Ignored: A Contrarian Opportunity in the Making

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Once again, traders overlooked another strong economic report from Canada. This time the strong report came in the form of GDP growth. The distracting event was a tremendous plunge in oil … Read more

A Second Extremely Strong Month for Canadian Jobs Chases Away My Bearish Bias

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 9, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Suddenly, prospects for the Canadian dollar (FXC) are presumably improving with unemployment making a dramatic turnaround over the last two months. September’s good news was drowned out by October’s sharp sell-off … Read more