Economic Reality: Unemployment and the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

In early July, I rolled out an “economic reality” index to provide a sober summary of the economic trials and tribulations facing millions of Americans even as those of us with trades and investments in the stock market enjoy the largesse of monetary and fiscal stimulus. I am now putting the chart comparing continuing claims … Read more

January Jobs Report Positives: Residential Construction Momentum and the Participation Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on Feb 10, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. non-farm labor report for January, 2014 seemed to get universal disapproval. Yet, the stock market soared in response anyway. The bearish tidings that began last week week have almost … Read more

Demographics and Labor Flows Drive the Implications of the Labor Participation Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 22, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In his opening statement for his press conference following the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve, Chairman Ben Bernanke once again called out the influence of lower participation rates on unemployment… … Read more