ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The economist “consensus” expectations for September job growth missed the mark by a mile, 336,000 actual versus 170,000 projected. These big misses represent the on-going struggles of conventional economics to understand the dynamics of today’s post-pandemic economy. Initially, the good jobs news frightened financial markets which think of good news as bad … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary The window for new home sales stealing share from existing home sales may be grinding to an end. Another plunge in sentiment for home builders combined with mortgage rates trending fast and furiously upward toward 8% are exerting more and more friction on the entire housing market. The stocks of … Read more
After Canada experienced a hot inflation print for the month of August (the Consumer Price Index (CPI)), I aggressively declared the Canadian dollar a buy, long Invesco CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) and short USD/CAD. I ignored the technicals of support at an upward sloping 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line below) on USD/CAD … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary June’s housing market showed some evidence of slight cooling with the Spring selling season in its late stages. July’s housing data showed a widening divergence in fortunes between an on-going decline in existing single-family home sales and resilient activity for new single-family homes. Enveloping both markets are elevated pricing pressures. … Read more
After Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “war of economic independence” came to an official end, I waited for evidence that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) would get serious about fighting inflation. The monetary evidence may have arrived on August 24th in the form of a monster rate hike from 17% to 25%. In … Read more