Above the 40 (August 10, 2018) – Facing Fresh Macro Challenges and Lacking Technical Confirmations, the S&P 500 Stalls Under All-Time Highs

AT40 = 51.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The indicators barely changed from the last Above the 40 post, but the technical winds are likely changing yet again. A little … Read more

Above the 40 (July 27, 2018) – Stock Market Weaknesses Confirm Earlier Bearish Divergence

AT40 = 49.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) managed to gain on the week, but it was not easy. Each day of the week delivered new … Read more

Above the 40 (July 18, 2018) – The S&P 500 Stubbornly Pushes Higher While A Bearish Divergence Lingers On

AT40 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I expressed my lingering suspicion of the market’s rally and drive right past a bearish … Read more

Lennar: Holding Critical Support As A Bullish Case Struggles to Reassert Itself

When Lennar (LEN) reported earnings on April 4th the market’s reaction looked just like the refresher the market needed to get housing stocks going again. LEN soared 10.0% on the day. The deal looked sealed when LEN appeared to confirm the surge with another up day. LEN has suffered severe selling pressure ever since. Source: … Read more

Housing Market Review (April, 2018) – Dissonance: Decelerating Housing Data and Diverging Home Builder Stocks

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in February, 2018 for January, 2018. At the time, I connected the dots on the bearish implications of converging technicals and fundamentals. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) broke down below its 200-day moving average (DMA) in a very bearish move. Yet, the very next day, … Read more