ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Looking for signs of life in the commercial real-estate (CRE) business has now become an earnings season ritual for me. If construction activity serves as a leading indicator of CRE’s future health, then Fastenal’s report on fourth quarter and annual earnings demonstrates once again that CRE continues to deteriorate, not improve. Fastenal (FAST) reported “…continued … Read more
The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October’s earnings report, I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night’s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior … Read more
Google (GOOG) is now down 5% for the year, under-performing the NASDAQ which is essentially flat for 2010. The sudden surge in volume in GOOG suggests that a large group of traders and investors are selling on the news of the Nexus One release. This volume represents the most active trading in GOOG since its … Read more
I am always on the hunt for trading opportunities in solar stocks. For a third time, ReneSola (SOL) appears to be a long opportunity. My previous two attempts failed as I bought calls instead of shares. Purchasing shares instead of calls would have left me flat at this point. I am looking for a charmed … Read more
While unemployment seems to have crested, the outlook for jobs growth is as dark as ever. Cintas (CTAS), a maker of work uniforms, reported disappointing earnings yesterday evening and provided a dour outlook on the jobs market: “We anticipate that when job recovery does occur, it will be a slow and lengthy process. In addition, … Read more
Today, Google (GOOG) closed above $600 for the first time since January, 2008. This milestone places the stock right at the minimum price target I estimated for the GOOG post-earnings trade. With a month remaining before January options expiration and the stock market stuck on “cruise control” for now, I believe I have much more … Read more
Last night, Research In Motion (RIMM) released an earnings report that exceeded analyst expectations, produced strong guidance, and was well-received by the market. I took particular interest in RIMM’s share repurchase activity. RIMM used $775M to purchase 12.3M shares at an average price of $63 per share (full details noted in Seeking Alpha’s transcripts of … Read more
For Toll Brothers (TOL), history has a nasty habit of repeating itself. Over the last two quarters, TOL released preliminary earnings reports that propelled the stock to one-day double-digit gains on record trading volumes. For the second time in a row, the actual earnings report generated the exact opposite response. After the last earnings report, … Read more
When I examined the trading patterns in Google’s stock (GOOG) between earnings reports, I found little consistency for forming a trading strategy. For October’s earnings cycle, I chose to play one of the few promising historical patterns: 67% of the times that GOOG opened up in response to earnings, the maximum close until the next … Read more
It has been a very long time since a stock blindsided me, but the sting is no less powerful! Yesterday, SunPower (SPWR) dropped the AA-bomb – audit and accounting, announcing that: “…based upon an internal review of its Philippine manufacturing operations, the company believes there may have been unsubstantiated accounting entries made in the first … Read more