2012 Will Begin with Several Candidate Trades for the Commodity Crash Playbook

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 28, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Federal Reserve’s second phase of quantitative easing (QE2) is slowly becoming a distant memory…{snip} The stark contrast between winning and losing stocks (S&P 500 index versus many commodity stocks) leaves … Read more

From Destocking to Restocking, Joy Global Weakens Case for a Commodities Crash

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 20, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, Joy Global (JOY) reported its fourth quarter and 2011 operating results and provided some valuable details on the outlook for commodities in 2012. JOY blames inventory destocking for the … Read more

Gold Breaks Down Even As Global Monetary Policies Ease

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 16, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) Eventually, the broken clocks calling for another massive sell-off in gold could be right. I sure hope so. I need to add to my current holdings at cheaper prices. The latest … Read more

Chart Review: Molycorp’s Downtrend Persists

2011 has turned in to a tough year for rare earth producer Molycorp (MCP). After increasing almost 4 times in 2010 from its opening price, MCP has suffered a slow and steady decline since hitting all-time highs in early May. MCP is now down 44% for the year. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Molycorp’s weakness comes on the … Read more

Time to Moderate Bullishness on the Australian Dollar

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 5, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar was a particularly strong beneficiary of last week’s bullish euphoria. Although the dollar index has only lost about 1% since its most recent peak on Friday, Nov 25, … Read more

Buying Canadian On Expectations for Stronger Growth

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 27, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Conference Board of Canada anticipates stronger growth in Canada over the next two years. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe represents the most significant downside risk to this forecast: {snip} … Read more

Global Economic Pressures Continue to Push the Dollar Reluctantly Higher

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 27, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. dollar’s role as a “safety” currency has finally returned although the market has only reluctantly marched back to the dollar’s printing presses. This year’s first two market swoons sent … Read more

Buy Gold Miners Instead of Gold Bars?

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 21, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) Bill Fleckenstein is my favorite investor in gold and silver (he is on the board of directors for Pan American Silver Corporation [PAAS]). In his latest post on gold, Fleckenstein broke … Read more

T2108 Update – November 15, 2011 (Clarifying Trading Strategies)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 77% (17th day of … Read more

Molycorp Loses Big Despite Reporting Strong Earnings

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 13, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Thursday evening, November 10, 2011, rare earth miner and producer Molycorp (MCP) reported strong earnings. There were no surprises given the strong guidance CEO Mark Smith delivered the previous week. … Read more