Above the 40 (May 30, 2018) – A Manic Stock Market Instantly Forgets Its Italian Angst

AT40 = 66.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a near 4-month high) VIX = 14.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Oh the hazards of changing short-term trading calls in this churning market! Reluctantly, I switched my short-term trading … Read more

A Fresh Top in Cocoa

It did not take long. Two days after I identified a Bollinger Band squeeze on iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), the technical chart pattern resolved to the downside. NIB has lost 11.9% over this time. Source: FreeStockCharts.com At current levels, NIB has confirmed a top from its 19-month high: a breakdown below the 50-day … Read more

Above the 40 (May 25, 2018) – A Loitering Stock Market

AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The churn continues on the S&P 500 (SPY) while AT40 (T2108) loiters around just under its overbought threshold of 70%. The lethargic … Read more

Above the 40 (May 18, 2018) – Stock Market Drift Stalls Bearish Signal

AT40 = 64.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Looks like there was a good reason to wait on flipping my short-term trading call back to (cautiously) bearish. After pointing out … Read more

Above the 40 (May 11, 2018) – The Stock Market’s Time to Test Buyers’ Resolve

AT40 = 65.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we are again. The stock market looks like it is breaking free, but there are major caveats which keep me wary … Read more