The Australian Dollar Suffers Pressures From All Corners – Except Rate Expectations

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) When I last wrote about the Australian dollar (FXA), it was wavering at the 0.74 support level against the U.S. dollar. More importantly, market expectations for an August rate cut from … Read more

The Only Remaining China-Based Trade I Like

The Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC) plunged 8.5% to start trading for the week. The ripple effects were wide and far-reaching even as arguments continue floating that the collapse in China’s stock market matters little outside of China and does not truly reflect on economic conditions in the country. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook summed up … Read more

Not Worrying About China’s Impact on the U.S. Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) There are plenty of reasons to worry about the U.S. housing market. I am not adding China’s recent market turmoil to the list. In a piece called “Will China flee or … Read more

T2108 Update (June 26, 2015) – Shanghai Composite’s Breakdown Shakes Summer’s Slumber

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

An Extended Forecast for A Stronger Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 28, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its September, 2014 quarterly report on Australia’s resources and energy sectors and analysis of key commodity markets. Each report includes forecasts … Read more

T2108 Update (April 10, 2015) – The (Strained?) Calm Before Earnings

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Negative Feedback Loops Should Continue Pressuring Iron Ore Prices Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {April 8, 2015 addendum: negative feedback loop is not the accurate term. I should have left it at feedback loops or even destructive feedback loops} {snip} {snip} There is every reason … Read more

Surprising Divergences Tugging At the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Over the weekend another wave of rumors about plans for economic stimulus in China made the rounds. These rumors were credited for helping to drive China’s Shanghai index toward a 7-year … Read more

A Weekend Rate Cut In China Fails to Stir the Australian Dollar; RBA Now On Tap

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Saturday, the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percentage points (25 basis points). Yet, as of the open of Asian trading, the Australian dollar (FXA) … Read more