ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 27, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Conference Board of Canada anticipates stronger growth in Canada over the next two years. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe represents the most significant downside risk to this forecast: {snip} … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This piece is a follow-up post to “Preparing for Profits in a Resource-Constrained World” (Part 1) in which I discussed the implications of Jeremy Grantham’s fundamental thesis of a new world where resources are … Read more
Just when the current stampede out of commodities seemed to shout out that demand is quickly disappearing from the face of the earth, Cabot Corp. (CBT) announces that growing demand has pushed it to restart mining for tantalum in Canada: “Rising global demand for tantalum has caused Cabot Corp. to announce its intention to resume … Read more
Currency traders appeared very disappointed that the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. The Canadian dollar (“loonie”) immediately bounced sharply from near three-year highs against the U.S. dollar, and the USD/CAD eventually popped over parity (1.0) for the first time in two weeks on Thursday. The accompanying statement suggested that the Bank … Read more
Mark Carney, the governor of Canada’s central bank (Bank of Canada), must be one of the most relaxed central bankers in the Western world. In an interview posted on Paul Kedrosky’s website (minutes 9 to 35), Carney admits that his job is easy compared to the task still facing many of his contemporaries. For example, … Read more
On Tuesday morning the Bank of Canada decided to leave its overnight interest rate unchanged at 1.0% and confirmed the caution expressed by Governor Mark Carney on CNBC almost a month ago. The concluding paragraph in the statement on monetary policy summarizes the Bank’s concern about current economic conditions: “At this time of transition in … Read more
In “The Dollar Is Headed Lower“, Randall W. Forsyth wrote in Barron’s that “The dollar’s trend now is unequivocally lower. And that’s apparent whether you look at fundamental factors or the technical picture on the charts.” He does a good job of summarizing the current condition of de facto competitive devaluation that is increasing the … Read more
While the euro catches all the headlines about its tremendous slide against the U.S. dollar, the British pound has followed closely behind. The pound has lost 12% against the U.S. dollar since its January peak while the euro has lost 18% in that same time. The pound has lost 15% since its post-recovery peak in … Read more
No new news in the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its overnight rate target at 0.25% and to start increasing this rate at the end of next quarter. The Bank of Canada continues to lament the stubborn strength of its currency despite these rock-bottom rates: “…the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the … Read more
As the U.S. dollar index has steadily advanced this month, the relative strength of the Canadian dollar has perplexed me. The Canadian dollar has long seemed overplayed to me as a commodity-positive play given the country’s heavy dependence on the health of the U.S. economy – which I continue to assume will perform weakly in … Read more