ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The year 2024 may be seen as the time the Bank of Japan’s “free lunch” came to an end. For decades, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ran a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) that even descended into negative rates in 2016. The BoJ eased and eased monetary policy (aka printed and printed) to buy Japanese … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Can a bullish divergence create a bottom for stocks? The stock market ended last week with an emphatic “YES!” A wild week got treacherous after Thursday’s META pricequake. Investors rushed for the exits after Meta Platforms (META) reported earnings. The sympathy selling went far and wide. Fortunately, earnings from Alphabet (GOOG) and … Read more
FactSet’s John Butters laid out a case for the “Magnificent Seven” companies losing the majority of their earnings growth dominance by the end of the year. In “Are the ‘Magnificent 7’ the Top Contributors to Earnings Growth for the S&P 500 for Q1?“, Butters showed how analyst expectations for year-over-year earnings growth for the top … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was an intense week of trading. The ever-escalating conflict in the Middle East disturbed markets. However, the initial negative reaction in futures market was mostly erased by the time of the market open on Thursday. The indices even managed to gain ground before getting faded. Thus, the market still fundamentally … Read more
Stock Market Commentary April showers have arrived in the form of stockdrops instead of raindrops. After a near relentless push higher every month since November, the S&P 500 is down 4.4% month-to-date. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have confirmed bearish breakdowns and the ETF of small caps, IWM, is again in a bear … Read more
Stock Market Commentary Last week was a week like few other for the volatility index, the VIX. In my last Market Breadth I made the case for the VIX mattering again. A VIX follow-through demonstrated even more strength and resilience. The resulting closing high for the year is a firmer bearish signal for the stock … Read more
Stock Market Commentary While I watch the tense trading unfold in NVDA, the VIX, the volatility index, has suddenly returned to my radar as an indicator of interest. Thursday’s stock market setback came with a surging VIX that closed at a new high of the year. The regular programming of the volatility faders actually failed … Read more
Stock Market Commentary NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) confirmed a double-top with today’s 3.4% loss. For only the sixth time this year, NVDA closed below its uptrending support at the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line below). Three of these closes have come in the last three days. The stock is now within “inches” of confirming … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market in March, 2024? Home builders grew more positive and greeted the spring selling season with a resurgence in housing starts. In my previous Housing Market Review, I pointed out breakouts in the stocks of homebuilders and a bottoming in existing home sales. Both developments … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market put an exclamation point on the end of the previous week’s statement performance. Market breadth made an important breakout to a 2-month high and almost looks ready to return to overbought conditions. Such a milestone would finally align my favorite technical indicator with the relentless strength in the stock … Read more