ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
About 18 months ago, I made a bearish case for Acacia Communications (ACIA) based on the timing, pricing, and nature of a secondary stock offering that was sandwiched between ACIA’s optimistic earnings guidance and subsequent news that major customer ZTE Corp. significantly reduced its guidance. The stock has never been the same and has drifted … Read more
It seems the U.S. dollar index (USD) has stopped going down. Since careening to its lows in January, the U.S. dollar has bounced up and down through a well-defined range. Source: Stockcharts.com The U.S. dollar gained each of the last 4 trading days as part of its latest run-up toward the top its trading range. … Read more
“…I decided to fade [USD/TRY] in anticipation of the next pullback. I also hope to collect a decent amount of carry as financial markets settle down a bit with earnings in the U.S. Still, until the CBRT takes definitive action, it makes sense to short the lira in the middle of what looks like an … Read more
It was utter chaos in January, 2015: the Swiss National Bank (SNB) capitulated on its self-made 1.20 floor against the euro on EUR/CHF. The bottom completely fell out the currency pair and caused ripple effects around the world of forex. I barely traded the Swiss franc since then specifically because of what I perceived as … Read more
In commodities, the time to get bullish is usually when prices are pressuring the industry and sentiment is persistently and deeply negative. The time to get bearish is usually when prices are skyrocketing, industry participants are celebrating wondrous fortunes, and sentiment is as euphoric as can be. Since I am long-term bullish on cocoa, I … Read more