ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: The S&P 500 defended support at its 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time in 10 months. The index was down 1.7% at its lows where it pierced its 200DMA and looked ready to challenge its 50DMA. Buyers stepped in at that point and proceeded to reverse the entire loss on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Mid-week, fresh drama in crypto looked like the next pivot point for the stock market. Instead, the bout of selling turned into a forgettable speedbump. Buyers returned with force in Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and the major stock indices recovered from major technical breakdowns and tests. In recent weeks, the stock market has bounced … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The last bullish run in the stock market came to an abrupt end. The day started on a positive note, but trading went awry after a mix of relatively unsurprising economic news releases and Fedspeak. News that the Justice Department would announce an international enforcement action against a cryptocurrency entity seemed to … Read more
With the power change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 2023 will be another year of drama over the U.S.’s debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently brought the looming debt drama to the forefront of economic headlines by delivering the obligatory warning about the risk of default if Congress does not increase the debt … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week was a bullish week for the stock market. Key breakouts on the major indices made a bullish case for stocks as buying strength conjured up overbought trading conditions. Yet another post-CPI celebration sealed the deal on a bullish convergence leading into the report on inflation. While it is tempting to … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: After celebrating slightly weak economic data last Friday, stock market buyers and bulls have trained their eyes on the December CPI (Consumer Price Index) report. The bullish trading action for the last two days suggests market participants are expecting weaker than expected inflation data. In turn, such a report would strengthen hopes … Read more
Stock Market and Inflation: Understanding the Impact of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report Soon after the Federal Reserve started tightening monetary policy, the stock market started acting like the Fed will see evidence that inflation is actually not a problem and thus plateau or pivot on rate hikes. Yet, the Fed said no in … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: It took a mixed jobs report and soft economic data to spark late New Year’s cheer in the stock market. The December jobs report refreshed the message of a strong labor market whose unemployment rate has stayed between 3.5% and 3.7% the entire time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates. Yet, … Read more
Dave & Busters Entertainment (PLAY) is a major gaming and dining entertainment center that recently expanded internationally. Insiders – corporate executives and especially one particularly eager institutional shareholder – have expanded ownership in the company for many months. When I recently read in briefing.com that a 10% owner purchased 214,588 shares, I finally jumped into the … Read more
{This analysis was updated on January 1, 2025 with the latest data, more clarity, and some corrections. Please see “How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern (2025 Update)“} Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season represents the year’s peak of home sales. During this time, households try … Read more