Historic Oversold Conditions Stretch Into A Bear Market – Above the 40 (March 12, 2020)

AT40 = 1.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (12th oversold day)AT200 = 4.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 75.5 (just short of financial crisis all-time high of 90)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary When I said a persistently elevated volatility index (VIX) warned us … Read more

From the Ashes of A Crash, Key Divergences in Housing-Related Stocks

This week’s market crash and subsequent sharp rebound revealed some key divergences among housing-related stocks. While one more home builder made it to my “do not touch” list, I see even more opportunities. Opportunities iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) To start the week, the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction … Read more

Second Derivative Selling Produces A Stock Market Crash – Above the 40 (March 9, 2020)

AT40 = 4.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (9th oversold day)AT200 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 54.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom completely collapsed on Monday in the face of massive second derivative selling. The stock market … Read more

The Race to Zero Interest Rate Policies (ZIRPs) Intensifies

The race to zero interest rate policies (ZIRPs) is reaching a climax. Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia On March 3, 2020, The Reserve Bank of Australia dropped its key interest rate 25 basis points (bps) from 0.75% to 0.5%, an all-time low for Australia. In doing so the RBA proclaimed the following in its statement: … Read more

Market Crash 2020 Addendum

This post is a quick addendum to the Above the 40 post I published just ahead of a complete freefall in global financial markets. At the time of writing, futures are showing a 5% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY)! The crash is reflected in real-time in the currency markets. I actively watch the Australian … Read more