Taylor Morrison Makes A Poorly Timed Acquisition of William Lyon

The Timing and the Stock Charts During the analyst conference call explaining the deal to buy William Lyon Homes (WLH), CEO Sheryl Palmer revealed that Taylor Morrison Home Company (TMHC) began buy-out talks several months ago. That was a time of rising optimism for home builders. The announcement of the deal came shortly after investors … Read more

Housing Market Review (June, 2019) – An On-Going Push Against the Seasonal Top

Housing Market Intro/Summary After writing the last Housing Market Review, I was convinced a triple top had appeared in the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB). The May sell-off in the stock market pushed ITB into a breakdown below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Immediately after that post, ITB rebounded right through its 50DMA and … Read more

Housing Market Review (May, 2019) – A (Seasonal) Top Unfolds Amid Rising Confidence and Mixed Demand

Housing Market Intro/Summary In several posts on the housing market, I made the case for a top in the stocks of home builders and pointed out the parallel weaknesses in the housing data. Last week, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) appeared to confirm what looks like a triple top in the index. Not … Read more

Housing Market Review (April, 2019) – Housing Sentiment Leans Against Seasonality and Fresh Declines In Key Data

Housing Market Intro/Summary In the March Housing Market Review, I described how the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was breaking out despite an unimpressive collection of housing data (in the aggregate and trendwise). Last month, I updated my analysis of the seasonal trading strategy for home builders and pointed out the historical tendency for … Read more

Home Builders Buckle Under Tax Reform – Reviewing the Damage

In my last review of the housing market, I ran out of time to comment on an emphatic statement from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) regarding its failure to influence the Republican plan for tax reform. The tax plan coming out of the GOP side of the House of Representatives includes a provision … Read more

Chart Carnage: Home Builders Under Duress

When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more

The Bad and the Good News In the Housing Market’s Worsening Labor Shortage

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 10, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The bursting of the housing bubble destroyed the supply chain at several critical junctures. For example, employment in the industry collapsed. While the overall unemployment rate in the industry has returned … Read more

Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more