VALE

How to Trade the Change In Narrative and Momentum for Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) One of my tenets from the (revised) “Commodity Crash Playbook” is to respect momentum and trends in commodity trading and investing… {snip} Iron ore has become a fascinating case in point. … Read more

Negative Feedback Loops Should Continue Pressuring Iron Ore Prices Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 19, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {April 8, 2015 addendum: negative feedback loop is not the accurate term. I should have left it at feedback loops or even destructive feedback loops} {snip} {snip} There is every reason … Read more

The QE2 Reference Price Identifies the Strongest Iron Ore and Metallurgical Coal Plays

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, I demonstrated how the timing of QE2 provided a useful reference point for buying Freeport-McMoran (FCX) as part of a coming revision of the commodity crash playbook. In this … Read more

2012 Has Delivered Some Attractive Bargains In Commodities

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Commodity stocks have generally underperformed the stock market in 2012. I still cannot decide whether this weakness represents a leading indicator of broader weakness to come or a fortuitous relief to … Read more

2012 Will Begin with Several Candidate Trades for the Commodity Crash Playbook

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 28, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Federal Reserve’s second phase of quantitative easing (QE2) is slowly becoming a distant memory…{snip} The stark contrast between winning and losing stocks (S&P 500 index versus many commodity stocks) leaves … Read more

Despite Bullish Outlook from Joy Global, the “Commodity Crash” Playbook Stays Active

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) While the stock market was oversold, I focused on accumulating beaten-down, commodity-related stocks as part of my “commodities crash” playbook as explained in “Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World – Rules and Picks.” … Read more

Commodities Crash: Stocks that Have Erased QE2 gains

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) In Tuesday’s statement on monetary policy, the Federal Reserve decided to reassure markets that interest rates are likely to stay at “exceptionally low levels” at least through the middle of 2013…{snip}…This dramatic change in the … Read more

Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World – Rules and Picks (Part 2 of 2)

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This piece is a follow-up post to “Preparing for Profits in a Resource-Constrained World” (Part 1) in which I discussed the implications of Jeremy Grantham’s fundamental thesis of a new world where resources are … Read more