ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I recently read an article that attempted to dive into the nuances of trading the United States Oil ETF (USO) versus the United States Gasoline ETF (UGA). I suddenly realized that through all the nuanced comparisons the forest was being lost for the trees. Since at least 2009, UGA has greatly outperformed USO. In fact, … Read more
Several authors have pointed out the difficulties in fashioning trades to take advantage of the movement in oil prices (for a recent example, see “Is Gasoline The Smart Oil Play? UGA Vs. USO“). Analyses counting off the bullish and bearish arguments on oil can fill many tomes. For example, there is fear of a drop … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 24, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In the middle of this fresh decline, the Bank of Canada delivered its July Monetary Policy Report with another rate cut included. The reaction in the currency market was just … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 8, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Over the past month the Canadian dollar (FXC) has significantly diverged from oil prices. Source: The St. Louis Federal Reserve This divergence is not a surprise given the weak correlations between … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 20, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) In my last post on the Canadian dollar (FXC), I claimed that it was time to start buying Canada while at the same time cautioning about an over-extension in the currency … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
A little over two weeks ago I generated some simple trading scenarios for the United States Oil Fund LP (USO). The scenarios depended upon well-behaved volatility for oil, the CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX). OVX is now on the edge of breaking out above its 50-day moving average (DMA). The move was led … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more