No Positive Catalyst for the Canadian Dollar from the Bank of Canada

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Wednesday’s terrorist attack in Canada disrupted life in Ottawa on the same day the country’s central bank was scheduled to hold a press conference to discuss its latest monetary policy decision. … Read more

Lost in the Market Angst: A Dramatic Improvement in Canadian Employment

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Suddenly, I am feeling a lot less bearish about the Canadian dollar (FXC). {snip} This means that half the job creation over the past year happened all in one month. What … Read more

Canadian Export Growth Surged Just As the Canadian Dollar Staged A Comeback

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 1, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Part of the thesis for my on-going bearishness on the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar (FXC) has included the apparent dampening of exports by a (previously) stubbornly strong Canadian dollar. … Read more

T2108 Update (November 28, 2014) – A Potentially Bearish Retreat from Overbought Conditions As Commodities Swim A Sea Of Red

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Canadian Dollar Hangs in the Balance Between Weak Jobs Growth and Strong High-End Housing Demand

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Employment picture remains lackluster On Friday, Statistics Canada painted another disappointing jobs picture for the country. Instead of the 20,000 additional jobs expected by the “consensus” for June, the Canadian economy … Read more

Forex Positioning Update: Short Euro, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Long Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) There was a lot of action last week in the foreign exchange market. This piece is a quick update on how I have adjusted and/or maintained positioning in select currencies: the … Read more

Forex Setup Week (August 10, 2014): Major Trends In Play

Currency markets have been providing some excitement during the past several weeks. Some will ascribe it to lower liquidity, but I think that explanation is too easy. Major adjustments are likely underway in sentiment and positioning, so traders will do well to review charts on at least a weekly basis to assess the bigger picture … Read more

Poor Wholesale Sales Deliver An Excuse to Sell the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Since reaching an inflation-adjusted high (at the time) in May, 2012, Canada’s wholesale sales have been relatively stagnant except a one-month surge the following May that beat the high (I used … Read more

The Bank of Canada Welcomes A Weaker Currency And A Bullish U.S. Economy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 3, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On January 22, 2014, the Bank of Canada left its target overnight interest rate at 1%. However, the Canadian dollar (FXC) slid quickly against the U.S. dollar anyway as the currency … Read more

Over-Reaction to Yellen Rate “Guidance” Helps Drive Fresh Breakout for the U.S. Dollar Against the Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This is from Janet Yellen’s first Federal Reserve press conference as Fed Chair (starting around the 37:00 mark). Yellen answered a question from a reporter from Reuters on when rates … Read more