Time to Buy the Dips In Homebuilders

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 12, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I last provided a comprehensive review of the housing market on September 29, 2010 in “Still Expecting Housing to Bounce Along the Bottom Until 2013.” At the time, I reiterated the … Read more

Housing’s Struggles Continue As Some Prices Roll Back to 1990s Levels

It seems the Federal Reserve may maintain some excuse to keep printing money. Hundreds of billions printed in the name of economic recovery and inflation can be seen almost everywhere except the housing market, one of two of the Fed’s main targets – the other being employment. (See “Inflation Watch” for running highlights of stories … Read more

Poor Housing Numbers Send XHB to Another Retest of 2010 Lows

Many homebuilder stocks, like Toll Brothers (TOL), went parabolic in April. The homebuilder index, XHB, hit 18-month highs at the time. Since flaming out, TOL is down 26%, and the homebuilder’s ETF, XHB, has sunk 23% in two months. This action further confirms the principle that parabolic moves more than likely signal the coming end … Read more

Toll Brothers Sets Up A Potential Short

Toll Brothers (TOL) has disappointed market participants with its earnings reports over the past 12 months. For example, December’s earnings generated a one-day drop over 7% that finished eliminating a strong gap up in response to November’s preliminary report. However, February’s earnings barely generated a yawn. A week later, the stock resumed an uptrend that … Read more

Toll Brothers Earnings Disappoint As Expected

For Toll Brothers (TOL), history has a nasty habit of repeating itself. Over the last two quarters, TOL released preliminary earnings reports that propelled the stock to one-day double-digit gains on record trading volumes. For the second time in a row, the actual earnings report generated the exact opposite response. After the last earnings report, … Read more

Excitement May Fade Again After Another TOL Earnings Surprise

For the second straight quarter, Toll Brothers (TOL) provided a preliminary quarterly report that ignited the stock as sales volumes once again surpassed expectations. Robert I. Toll, chairman and CEO, explains: “Our fourth-quarter unit deliveries exceeded the high end of our range of guidance due to the delivery of a higher percentage of our backlog, … Read more

Insiders At Toll Brothers Continue to Dump Shares Ahead of Reported Housing Recovery

Five months ago, I flagged $45M in combined stock sales by the Toll brothers in their company’s stock. Since then, Toll Brothers (TOL) has been on a roller coaster ride: the stock was first up 15% from the time of my last post, then a two-month and 26% decline, and now a two-month 40% run. … Read more