Above the 40 (May 22, 2018) – An Overbought Threshold Rejects A Stock Market With Crossed Signals

AT40 = 65.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a high at 69.7%) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 13.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The stock market keeps crossing up as headlines and macro events push the market one way and … Read more

Housing Market Review (March, 2018) – Breakdown Confirmed, Slivers of Remaining Support

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in February, 2018 for January, 2018. At the time, I connected the dots on the bearish implications of converging technicals and fundamentals. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) actually managed to hold onto support at its 200-day moving average…until today. So not only is the seasonal … Read more

Housing Market Review (February, 2018) – Stalled and Toppy

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2018 for December, 2017. At the time, I described the ominous breakdown of the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB), but I was not yet ready to connect the dots on the bearish implications. I am now. ITB has continued its breakdown by first severely … Read more

Housing Market Review (January, 2018) – Breakdown

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in December, 2017 for November, 2017. At the time, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) was still recovering from a small dip caused by an earnings report from Toll Brothers (TOL) that disappointed the market. Housing data were strong and pointed to on-going bullishness. January launched … Read more

Above the 40 (January 26, 2018) – The S&P 500 Rolls Over Dollar’s Speedbump

AT40 = 67.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 65.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a TEN MONTH HIGH) VIX = 11.1 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Once again the stock market was only able to maintain overbought trading conditions for 1 day. At the … Read more