ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary At the beginning of August, you might have looked uninformed predicting that the S&P 500 would end up printing its 4th straight monthly gain. At its lows, the index wiped out gains from the previous two months and almost reversed May as well. Now, the index hovers just below its all-time high … Read more
The simple answer is yes! The data show that a worse than average August for the S&P 500 (SPY) increases the likelihood of a worse than average September. I use average to mean the average maximum drawdown as calculated and analyzed in “How to Trade During the Stock Market’s Most Dangerous Months“. In this case, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary This year’s Jackson Hole confab hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve delivered for financial markets. In his prepared speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell issued an historic and classic sound bite for all of the history of monetary policy (emphasis mine): “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of … Read more
Just over two months ago, I aggressively bought ahead of an official trigger of the 20% rule for buying iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ). At the time, I explained my decision with three key reasons: I was also well aware that buying early subjected me to additional risks for the trading rule. Thus, I insisted … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s V-shaped recovery finished reversing most of the losses from the August calamity. Small caps are once again the laggards. During this recovery the market swung from recessions fears to recession relief. The prospects for interest rate cuts no longer seemed to matter on either side of the V-shape. The … Read more