Above the 40 (March 2, 2018) – Trump Pulls the Trade War Tripwire

AT40 = 27.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.6 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary President Trump has been talking about taking unilateral trade actions since he was campaigning in 2016. The rhetoric heated up … Read more

Above the 40 (February 28) – An S&P 500 Breakdown Helps Drag Market to Edge of Oversold

AT40 = 25.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 43.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.9% Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Commentary As I feared was likely, the S&P 500 (SPY) wasted no time in breaking its 50-day moving average (DMA) support. … Read more

Above the 40 (February 27, 2018) – The Bulls’ Steamroller Abruptly Runs Out of Gas

AT40 = 31.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.6 (17.7% gain) Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) Commentary During the thick of the sell-off earlier this month, I stated with tongue-in-cheek that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome … Read more

Above the 40 (February 23, 2018) – Bulls Warm the Steamroller Right Back Up

AT40 = 36.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 16.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (awaiting confirmation of bullish breakout) Commentary Something woke the bulls and buyers back up enough to get the steamroller warmed up again. The … Read more

Above the 40 (February 21, 2018) – Exhausted Buyers Fail to Break Through the S&P 500’s Cloud

AT40 = 28.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (downgrade from cautiously bullish) Commentary Buyers are starting to look exhausted. Based on the topsy-turvy reaction to the minutes from the last meeting … Read more