Market Crash 2020 Addendum

This post is a quick addendum to the Above the 40 post I published just ahead of a complete freefall in global financial markets. At the time of writing, futures are showing a 5% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY)! The crash is reflected in real-time in the currency markets. I actively watch the Australian … Read more

An Ugly Weekly Gain for An Extremely Oversold Stock Market – Above the 40 (March 6, 2020)

AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (8th oversold day)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.9Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom barely held as support last week. It was a week of dramatic ups and downs … Read more

Being Oversold Is Reason Enough for Buying the Stock Market – Above the 40 (March 4, 2020)

AT40 = 17.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th oversold day)AT200 = 32.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 32.0Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Was it a delayed response to the emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve? Was it the big comeback by … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Stakes A Claim On A Bottom – Above the 40 (March 2, 2020)

The S&P 500 (SPY) jumped 4.6% and sliced right through 200DMA resistance.

AT40 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 29.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 33.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary On a day of incredible moves, I was most surprised that the stock market gave traders a chance to get in on the … Read more

Shake and Bake Does A Bottom Make – Above the 40 (February 28, 2020)

AT40 = 7.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3, dropped as low as 5.1%)AT200 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month low, dropped as low as 17.8%)VIX = 40.1 (was as high as 49.5%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold I had … Read more

A Viral Cure from the Federal Reserve: An Ambulance Full of Rate Cuts

Fed to the Rescue If you are sitting at home wringing your hands about catching a virus from the outside world, I am guessing you are not exactly relieved to hear that the U.S. Federal Reserve may try to come to your rescue with more rate cuts. Yet, easy money is what central banks know … Read more

Second Derivative Selling Reverses More Stock Market Breakouts – Above the 40 (February 27, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) plunged from 18.5% to 9.4% to become deeply oversold.

AT40 = 9.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2)AT200 = 26.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 13-month low)VIX = 39.2 (up 42.1%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold The stock market is only into its second oversold day, but the technical extreme … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Is A Market Caring About Risk – Above the 40 (February 26, 2020)

AT40 = 18.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #1)AT200 = 36.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 13-month low)VIX = 27.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold The action in the stock market continues to move fast. On Tuesday, I declared the … Read more

Suddenly Oversold: Stock Market Extremes Continue – Above the 40 (February 25, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) bounced perfectly off the oversold threshold and closed at 21.1%

AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more

Synchronized 50DMA Breakdowns for the Stock Market – Above the 40 (February 24, 2020)

AT40 = 34.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.0Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Sellers put on another rare performance: major indices across the board broke down below their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs). Following … Read more