ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Message in Home Builder Sentiment The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported a tremendous surge in the sentiment of home builders. The Housing Market Index (HMI) soared from 37 in May to 58 in June. Just two months after suffering a historic plunge, sentiment among home builders is right back to positive territory. … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Could the housing downturn already be coming to a swift end? The stocks of home builders are delivering this message. They have enjoyed a very healthy rally and recovery from the depths of the March stock market crash. The challenges ahead are large: worsening economic conditions, unemployment at historically high … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary Something surprising is happening in the middle of the current downturn in the housing market: buyers keep coming and home builders are staying resilient and resolute. A series of earnings reports from publicly traded home builders do not reflect the historic plunge in builder sentiment from April (see below). The … Read more
“…if not for the pandemic, the strong momentum going into the Spring may have actually sent confidence higher still. Instead, confidence will undoubtedly plunge in the next report. The consumer sentiment index plunged to a 4-year low as a leading indicator of where builder confidence will go.” Housing Downturn: Put Spring’s Momentum On the Shelf … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary The housing market has become a lot more dynamic than usual, so over the past few months I have written more pieces beyond the monthly housing market review. The current economic crisis coming from the coronavirus pandemic has increased my frequency of coverage. The most telling moments came when I wrote to … Read more