Housing Market Review (January, 2018) – Breakdown

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in December, 2017 for November, 2017. At the time, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) was still recovering from a small dip caused by an earnings report from Toll Brothers (TOL) that disappointed the market. Housing data were strong and pointed to on-going bullishness. January launched … Read more

Above the 40 (January 23, 2018) – An S&P 500 Back to Overbought And Ripping

AT40 = 70.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – Day #1 of an overbought period AT200 = 66.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a TEN MONTH HIGH) VIX = 11.1 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) made another all-time high as it continued … Read more

Housing Market Review (November, 2017) – A Tax-Driven Day of Angst Transforms Into Another Unrelenting Rally

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in October, 2017 for September, 2017. At the time, I lamented having too small an exposure to home builders while the entire sector rallied nearly non-stop. I was counting on seasonal patterns to deliver at least one buyable dip ahead of the seasonally strong period starting in … Read more

Republican Tax Plan Does Not Worry KB Home

The angst may already be fading away. Last week, I chronicled the carnage across the stocks of home builders that erupted in response to the Republican plan for tax reform that includes a reduction in the cap on the mortgage interest deduction. The sell-off that likely had roots in the extreme displeasure emanating from the … Read more

Home Builders Buckle Under Tax Reform – Reviewing the Damage

In my last review of the housing market, I ran out of time to comment on an emphatic statement from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) regarding its failure to influence the Republican plan for tax reform. The tax plan coming out of the GOP side of the House of Representatives includes a provision … Read more

Housing Market Review – A Notable Change In Tone (August, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in July, 2017 for June, 2017. The month from there marked a significant change in tone for home builders. The change in tone starts with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and its failure to hold support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first … Read more

Housing Market Review – A Strong and Optimistic Market Awaits the Next Fed Meeting (May, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in April, 2017 for March, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the high end of almost two months of churn which included a new 10-year high. ITB has not hit “escape velocity” from its price where the U.S. Federal Reserve last … Read more

Housing Market Review – The Promise of Spring Awaits (February, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in January, 2017 for December, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was rebounding strongly from a brief pullback from an earnings-driven 6-month high. I described the setup as a coiled spring. The coiled spring did not release to great effect, but earnings from … Read more

Chart Carnage: Home Builders Under Duress

When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more

Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more