ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
An on-going debate rages about whether or how fast the Fed should hike rates in 2019. Some even question the need for a rate hike in December. Indeed, the market has priced in a “only” a 65% chance of a rate hike next month. I say only because before the October sell-off and November’s weakness, … Read more
AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.3 (28.5% increase!) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary “We cannot tolerate pervasive and persistent misconduct at any bank and the consumers harmed by Wells Fargo expect that robust … Read more
Canada and the U.S. reported jobs numbers for April at the same time last Friday (8:30am Eastern). From the surface, it looks like traders thought MUCH more highly of the Canadian report. The U.S. dollar plunged against the Canadian dollar (FXC) and erased the entire week’s gain for USD/CAD. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Interestingly, traders took a … Read more
AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.7 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The February U.S. jobs report catalyzed the next swing in the stock market’s bear-bull knife fight. I noted in my … Read more
President-elect Donald Trump made a strong promise to bring back jobs to the U.S. from overseas. Manufacturing employment was a particular showcase in this campaign pledge. There are a lot of reasons to believe that a to return jobs to the U.S. will be extremely hard to accomplish. I am particularly struck by the data … Read more