ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 47% VIX Status: 23 … Read more
In late October, I claimed that Goldman Sachs (GS) had finally found a bottom after two years of mostly declining prices. It has been all downhill for GS ever since. The chart below shows the signals I used to decide GS had finally printed a bottom. Note that on November 9, GS sliced cleanly and … Read more
Goldman Sachs (GS) is the company everyone loves to hate. This sentiment makes a potential bottom in the stock, potentially explosive. Since mid-September, buying volume in GS has significantly dominated selling volume. In the past 2 days, GS has gained 16%, producing a very strong breakout above the downtrend formed by a declining 50DMA. I … Read more
On May 15, 2006, I wrote a piece called “Evidence of A Tiring Bull.” I used T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages (DMAs), to make the strong claim that the three-year old bull market was nearing an end. T2107 had been in decline for two years, and I projected the … Read more
Germany to scrap nuclear power by 2022 – Sky News Germany on Monday became the first major industrialised power to agree an end to nuclear power in the wake of the disaster in Japan, with a phase-out to be completed by 2022. Chancellor Angela Merkel said the decision, hammered out by her centre-right coalition overnight, … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) It has been a while since I last looked at Deutsche Bank (DB). At that time, I was focused on a pairs trade strategy versus Goldman Sachs (GS). So when I noted last week that GS … Read more
Every now and then, I check in on the chart of Goldman Sachs (GS) as a potential indicator of the underlying health of the stock market. This year, I have been consistently surprised at Goldman’s persistent relative weakness compared to the general market. After recently refreshing my chart of the S&P 500 price in gold, … Read more
In the wake of the SEC’s charges of fraud against Goldman Sachs (GS), I recommended trying a pairs trade going short GS and long Deutsche Bank (DB). I was betting that either the SEC charges would blow over and DB would rebound sharply, or the gravity of the charges would intensify and GS would sell-off … Read more
July will deliver an up month for Goldman Sachs (GS) for the first time since March and only the third time since it peaked nine months ago. GS is up 12% for the month of July, handily beating the 7% gain for the S&P 500 and and the 6% gain for XLF, the SPDRs Select … Read more
On Friday, CNBC’s Fast Money asked the question “Has Goldman Bottomed Out?” The answer to these kinds of questions is always a “maybe” or a more resolute “perhaps/perhaps not” but I was a bit amused at the reasoning provided for guessing that Goldman Sachs (GS) has reached a bottom: It acted well on Wednesday by … Read more