ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: Last week I described how to reconcile a stock market that was both complacent and oversold. The stock market proceeded from there to double down on complacency while rebounding from “close enough to oversold” levels for market breadth. Traders are showing no worries as the volatility index (VIX) plunged to levels last … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: On cue, the stock market groaned at fresh signs of economic strength, this time from another strong jobs report. The recession Wall Street wants is on hold yet again. The bullish intent that charged out of the wake of the Federal Reserve’s last statement on monetary policy made a sharp u-turn. The … Read more
With the power change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 2023 will be another year of drama over the U.S.’s debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently brought the looming debt drama to the forefront of economic headlines by delivering the obligatory warning about the risk of default if Congress does not increase the debt … Read more
The landscape of inflation and monetary policy continues to change fast. The June inflation numbers disappointed expectations once again for peak inflation. A surprise 1% point rate hike by the Bank of Canada combined with this hot inflation accelerated the timeline for peak interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Instead of a 75 basis point … Read more
That sigh of disappointment was Wall Street looking for signs of a weakening labor market in the June jobs report. Instead, that report showed job creation remains robust in the economy. Not only did the unemployment rate remain steady at a low 3.6% with the economy adding 372,000 jobs (far more than “consensus” expectations), the … Read more