ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 5, 2011. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar was a particularly strong beneficiary of last week’s bullish euphoria. Although the dollar index has only lost about 1% since its most recent peak on Friday, Nov 25, … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar has fallen so far, so fast over the past month that I failed to notice a major change in tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy until now. … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This piece is a follow-up post to “Preparing for Profits in a Resource-Constrained World” (Part 1) in which I discussed the implications of Jeremy Grantham’s fundamental thesis of a new world where resources are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page.) T2108 Status: 21% and “almost” oversold. General Trading Call: Continue covering shorts. Add more small long positions. Commentary T2108 dropped to 21%, right on the edge of the official 20% oversold … Read more
I thought it would be fitting to close out another year of blog posts to celebrate the performance of one of my favorite investments: the Australian dollar. Despite beginning the week with another round of tightening by Chinese monetary authorities, the Australian dollar put on another stellar show. The “Aussie” closed the week up over … Read more
The Australian dollar has been one of my favorite ways to bet against the U.S. dollar. Earlier this month, the Aussie broke through parity and reached all-time highs versus the U.S. dollar. Since then, the currency has moved steadily lower, taking a brief pause to form the right shoulder in an ominous-looking head and shoulders … Read more
A surprise increase in margin requirements after the close of business November 10th apparently contributed to the climactic end to silver’s parabolic move on Tuesday. This also explains why gold’s fade was not nearly as bad a silver’s. Details are available in the following references in order of publication: CNBC (Tues): “CME Taps the Brakes … Read more
Ahead of last week’s big events, I suggested that the market was setting up for a surprise reaction. So far, the biggest surprise has been the timing of the market’s big rally reaction after the election and the Federal Reserve’s announcement of quantitative easing and before the unemployment report. But that is not the surprise … Read more
While most of the Western industrial world struggles with deflationary fears, Australia continues to worry about inflation. In tonight’s latest release on monetary policy, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens states: “If economic conditions evolve as the Board currently expects, it is likely that higher interest rates will be required, at some point, … Read more
I last wrote about the Australian dollar during its worst slide since the financial crisis. At the time, I claimed that the slide was probably good for a short-term bounce, but the currency could easily go even lower given macroeconomic concerns. Since then, the Australian dollar has firmed up nicely and formed a potential “W-bottom” … Read more