FXA

Australian GDP Growth Soars Despite A Large Drop in the Terms of Trade

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tuesday night, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a surprise jump in GDP of 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. With growing fears of a global economic slowdown, analyst consensus had pegged growth only … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Cuts Rates Again And Gives Weak Forward Guidance

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Futures estimated a 63% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut rates by 50 basis points tonight, but the RBA went with the analyst consensus of a 25 … Read more

Correlations Are Broken But Australian Dollar Still Leads The S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar…{snip}…has been highly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) for much of the last six years and more. The correlation has broken down at critical moments, the most interesting … Read more

Positioning More Bearishly Versus the Australian Dollar As It Loses 2012’s Gains

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have been writing more and more bearishly on the Australian dollar this year (for example, see “Reserve Bank Of Australia Seems Biased Toward More Monetary Easing“). After BHP Billiton (BHP) … Read more

The Australian Dollar Continues to Lose the Race Against the S&P 500 in 2012

Someone forgot to tell the Australian dollar that financial markets are in “risk on” mode. While the Australian dollar is still up for the year against the U.S. dollar, it continues to lag the S&P 500 (SPY) by a greater and greater distance. The Aussie is now up 2.6% versus the U.S. dollar whereas the … Read more

My Love Affair with the Australian Dollar Has Officially Ended

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip}…this is a good moment to describe finally why I recently sold my long-term holdings in the Rydex CurrencyShares Australian (FXA). {snip} Never once have I pondered the possibility of the … Read more

Chart Review: Australian Dollar Hitting Critical Junctures

I moderated my bullishness on the Australian dollar in early December because Australia’s terms of trade have likely peaked for now and the Reserve Bank of Australia had lowered rates twice. Last week, I recharged my bullishness on the Australian dollar after the Federal Reserve extended its dovish monetary policy. The Australian dollar experienced a … Read more

No QE3, But Federal Reserve Statement Green Lights Commodity Currencies and Gold

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In its latest monetary policy proclamation, the Federal Reserve announced that it will likely extend the window for near-zero interest rates until at least late 2014. There was no hint of … Read more

How to Trade “Euro Fatigue”

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It seems that the U.S. market has grown weary of worrying about the euro. The euro has lost 4.5% versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD)(FXE) since December 9, 2011 while the S&P … Read more

Australian Dollar Ends Year Flat, Maintaining Close Correlation With S&P 500

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) At the end of 2010, the Australian dollar closed at an all-time high against the U.S. dollar; the Aussie gained 14% and yielded 4.75% (for more details see “The Australian Dollar … Read more