ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Two weeks ago, I first noted an impressive “stealth” rally in some solar stocks like SOL, LDK, and JASO. At the time, First Solar (FSLR) was flat on the year, but it still made the list because this flat performance was out-performing the general market. I also noted that FSLR was due for a pullback … Read more
OK, by “stealth” I really mean I have not paid close enough attention to the rallies in several solar stocks. 2010 has been a year of true divergence for solar stocks. Some solar stocks have been in year-to-date rallies and others have been declining all year. The net result is an awful -25% year-to-date performance … Read more
As expected, First Solar’s earnings last week did not print any big surprises. Read a brief summary provided by earth2tech or flip through the earnings presentation for more details. The mixed results provided no clear trading catalyst, putting key technical levels in play that I was looking to trade. Support at the 200-day moving average … Read more
First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings this evening. Unlike the last two rounds, I have no strong feelings about the potential upward or downward moves this time around. I went neutral on FSLR after closing out positions on the great post-earnings pop in April, and I have not done much else since then with the stock … Read more
By now, I think we should recognize that low-volume rallies simply do not last – the odds tend to favor a return of most, if not all, those kinds of gains, sooner than later. Last week, I was particularly puzzled by a low-volume 2.4% rally on the S&P 500 that came on the heels of … Read more
First Solar (FSLR) has been stuck in a downtrend for two years (see chart below). The stock has traveled a volatile path through this trend, providing strong trading opportunities up or down. For example, a sharp two-month rally from the March, 2009 lows doubled the stock price. Insider buying earlier this year provided a convincing … Read more
My earnings play on First Solar (FSLR) unfolded much better than expected today. The post-earnings pop took FSLR directly to my standing $149/150 price target that represents a fill of the earnings gap from October. See chart below: *Chart created using TeleChart: I believe the biggest catalyst for today’s 18% move was FSLR’s tremendous boost … Read more
First Solar (FSLR) has made a good recovery from the selling following February’s earnings report. Two weeks ago, FSLR closed as high as 9% above its price before its previous earnings and completed a 40% run-up from February’s bottom. The recent highs also marked the post-earnings highs from October’s poorly received earnings report. The stock … Read more
Insider buying at First Solar (FSLR) continues to mark a near-term bottom in the stock, but the recovery from February’s post-earnings losses has unfolded much more slowly than I expected. FSLR is up 18% since printing a bottom on February 25, the day before FSLR’s CEO and EVP of Marketing & Product Management purchased a … Read more
Now we know the source of some of this week’s selling pressure in First Solar’s stock. Michael Ahearn, former CEO and current Executive Chairman, dumped $142.1M in company stock between the 22nd and 24th. He sold another $20.7M on the 25th and 26th. However, the good news is that on Friday two First Solar (FSLR) … Read more