ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
So much for the dollar being “…poised for additional gains, especially versus the euro.” Instead of slowly grinding higher over its 50-day moving average (DMA), the U.S. dollar index failed its test of this important resistance line. Now another test of the 200DMA is right around the corner. *Chart created using TeleChart: Most of the … Read more
The U.S. dollar index has made little progress since its tremendous one-day rally over two weeks ago. Over the past week, the dollar index has stalled out right at its 50-day moving average (DMA). [Click for larger view] *Chart created using TeleChart: I set my plan at this point to dial my positions to net … Read more
Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, managing partner at Hayman Investments, earned his claim to fame by predicting the crash in housing prices and the financial crisis that would follow. Now, he has focused his cold stare on the bubbles in sovereign debt in developed economies. The folks at CNBC’s Strategy session interviewed Bass last week … Read more
The Swiss franc almost got lost in the wake of the U.S. dollar’s tremendously sharp relief rally from support. In the last week, the franc has reasserted its dominance after experiencing an entire month of rare weakness. The daily chart of the euro vs. the franc (EUR/CHF) below demonstrates the sharp reversal that punctuates the … Read more
Now THIS is the way to start a relief rally. The U.S. dollar index surged on Wednesday 1.84%, marking its largest one-day gain since a 2.72% gain on January 20, 2009. At that time, the dollar was in the middle of a sharp and major bounce off its 200-day moving average (DMA) support on its … Read more
The U.S. dollar rallied into the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on monetary policy. This move seemed to launch (finally) the start of a relief rally that I have tried to anticipate as the dollar approached its support at the 200-day moving average (DMA). The uncertainty over the outcome of the Fed decision encouraged me to … Read more
I have often wondered whether Germany’s initial reticence to help the Eurozone solve its debt problems was “engineered”, in part, to devalue the euro from its suffocating highs in 2009. We will likely never know for sure, but the euro’s remarkable slide in 2010 has apparently generated impressive economic results, especially in Germany. There is … Read more
If an asset bubble is characterized by accelerating euphoria as asset prices rise ever higher, gold is still not in a bubble. The skepticism directed towards gold continues to rise along with its price despite gold marking all-time highs the past two months. I decided to do a refresh of last year’s sentiment analysis on … Read more
If the summer ends up trading in a range, it will have a wider berth than I had expected. This week the S&P 500 broke both closing and intra-day lows for 2010 and confirmed an unfolding downtrend. The index is down 8 of the last 9 days. The good news is that the S&P 500 … Read more
Two weeks ago, I wrote “Sellers Step Out of the Way” to describe an impressive rally from oversold conditions on poor volume on May 27th. The S&P 500 closed up 3.3% that day, just short of the 200-day moving average (DMA). Today, the index finally hurdled over the 200DMA resistance for the first time in … Read more