Trading the Panic In the British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 11, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The panic in the British pound (FXB) became unmistakable last week as the currency experienced a flash crash. {snip} The presumed driver of the rush to sell soon after the close … Read more

Gold and Silver Bid for A Bottom In Wake of September Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On October 5th, I noted how SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both completed post-Brexit roundtrips as rumors of a eurozone tapering of QE triggered a fresh wave … Read more

Gold and Silver Break Down: A Post-Brexit Roundtrip Triggered By Eurozone Rumors

Gold and silver may have finally topped out. The first technical clues came after SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) reversed all its incremental gains form the post-Brexit trade. I used that event and other indicators to posit a top for gold in late July. GLD promptly bounced from that support level. A month later I reiterated … Read more

The British Pound Finds Fresh Support In The UK’s Economic About-Face

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 7, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The theme was consistent for the Markit economic indicators for August: the UK economy rebounded sharply and strongly from the initial post-Brexit blues. Almost across the board, measures of economic activity … Read more

The Market’s Not Buying A September Hike But Gold Is Still Topping

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 28, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Going into the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, various “Fed heads” were interviewed about the prospects for the next rate hike. The chorus in the days and weeks before Jackson Hole … Read more

A Potentially Ominous Sentiment Shift for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest data on speculator forex positioning showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net … Read more

Forex Critical: Up Is Down and Contrasts Confound

Last week was full of important news for forex trading. As a dollar bull, euro bear, and yen bear, the week presented particular challenges that hedging could only soothe a little bit. I had a good run with these positions in recent weeks. As forex goes, a setback was due – just too bad the … Read more

T2108 Update (July 12, 2016) – Despite Unbalance, GRAVITY Eases the Way for An Overbought S&P 500

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Brexit Helps Invalidate A Blow-Off Top for Gold

+500% spike in searches for "buy gold" in the past four hourshttps://t.co/pmMsRUcAwK — GoogleTrends (@GoogleTrends) June 24, 2016 Regular readers know that Google Trends has become my favorite sentiment indicator for assessing gold at the extremes. So I hopped up when I heard about the above tweet on the latest podcast of “Slate Money.” (That … Read more

Brexit Fear Recedes And Creates A New Trading Opportunity

At the time of writing, currency markets opened trading this week with Brexit fear continuing to recede in the form of a big gap in favor of the British pound (FXB). Google Trends shows that on Friday, search interest in Brexit took a big step back (down 17%). This move confirms the apparent change in … Read more