A Wavering Economic Backdrop Suggests A Top for the Australian Dollar

Australia just celebrated setting a (modern era) world record for the longest string of quarters without a recession. Yet Australia’s economic backdrop appears to be wavering. This week’s labor force survey could provide a critical point of relief or pile on yet more concern. Iron Ore’s Latest Plunge I begin with iron ore – Australia’s … Read more

Above the 40 (April 7, 2017) – An Incrementally More Dangerous Stock Market

AT40 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The timetable for a May end to this period of extremely low volatility looks like … Read more

Above the 40 (March 21, 2017) – A (Brief?) Time to Get Bearish On the Stock Market

AT40 = 35.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) finally flipped the switch on the bearish threshold I have described since the last bullish breakout … Read more

Above the 40 (March 8, 2017) – A Quiet Pre-Fed Breakdown for the Stock Market

AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more

Above the 40 (March 6, 2017) – SNAP to Reality

AT40 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 65.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.2 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we go again. Divergence is rearing its head again and bringing a dose of reality to the setup for … Read more

T2108 Update (January 30, 2017) – Disruption Junction Beckons S&P 500 Bears

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about T2108, see my T2108 Resource Page. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.) T2108 Status: 53.9% T2107 Status: 65.4% VIX … Read more

T2108 Update (January 19, 2017) – Inauguration Eve Draws More Bearish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (January 4, 2017) – A Tantalizing Day for the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 30, 2016) – From a Roar to Caution: The S&P 500 Tentatively Steps Toward 2017

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (December 28, 2016) – Caution Confirmed: The S&P 500 Ends A Feeble Overbought Period

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more