ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The S&P 500 is now over 4% off the lows from oversold conditions. 40% of this entire move came on today’s surge as the dollar plunged over 1% versus the euro. The thrills occurred DESPITE poor news flow from the Greek sovereign debt drama: for example, imminent strikes to protest austerity measures and German hesitancy … Read more
Nowhere is a destination for the average solar stock these days. For example, TAN, the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF, has been stuck in a trading range since May of last year. 16 months ago, TAN was selling at the current price of $8.33/share. This dramatic under-performance (for example, relative to the S&P 500) will … Read more
Last week, I suggested that T2108 was at such low levels that the next spike in the VIX would represent a major buying opportunity. Sure enough, the VIX printed only its second higher high of the entire rally off the March lows and buyers rushed immediately into the market (put sellers probably also rushed in … Read more
Toyota’s stock first broke down in late November when it plunged below the 200-day moving average (DMA) for the first time since 2007. Unlike 2007, this technical break led to a sharp rally and not a sustained sell-off. (At the time, I suggested a counter-trend rally was likely, especially if the yen weakened; but I … Read more
The U.S. dollar index is only trading back to levels from last summer. However, from a technical standpoint, the dollar has broken out: the short-term downtrend has ended, and the current move has considerable upside potential. *Chart created using TeleChart: The chart above shows that the dollar’s break below the 200DMA in May led to … Read more
At the end of December, I suggested that the post-earnings trading in U.S. Steel (X) and Nucor (NUE) would be explosive based upon stealth rallies from the November lows that occurred despite a strong accumulation in puts and shorts on those stocks. On Tuesday, both steel companies delivered disappointing earnings that included cautions regarding continued … Read more
Bottom-fishing is always a risky business, but sometimes it is worth a try. This is the case with First Solar (FSLR) which has printed several profitable bottoms in the past two years. After dropping for 11 consecutive days, FSLR finally managed to close with a gain on Tuesday. The 3% increase came on volume almost … Read more
The market delivered another tepid response to another stellar earnings report from Intel (INTC). After October’s earnings report, I argued that INTC was hitting peak performance. Trading following that report seemed to support my expectation. Trading after Thursday night’s earnings looks like an exclamation point on what is a potential climactic top in INTC. Prior … Read more
In “That’s one long gold bubble,” Tim Ianaco created an illustrative animated graphic from Google news archives comparing the news coverage of “housing bubble,” “credit bubble,” and “gold bubble.” He rightfully observes the following: “…my understanding of how bubbles work is that they materialize rather quickly, fueled by media coverage toward the end and then … Read more
“Tricks are for kids he plays much gigs He’s a big bad wolf and you’re the three pigs He’s a big bad wolf in your neighborhood Not bad meaning bad but bad meaning good“ “Peter Piper” – Run D.M.C., 1986 from the album “Raising Hell” What was once bad is now good. Or maybe what … Read more