Above the 40 (June 21, 2017) – The NASDAQ Snatches the Baton From the S&P 500

AT40 = 47.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Like two ships passing in the night, the NASDAQ, including the PowerShares QQQ ETF (QQQ), took back its advantage … Read more

Above the 40 (June 16, 2017) – A Post-Fed Market Still In Bullish Position

AT40 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.4 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The Federal Reserve gave the permission to the stock market that I awaited…well, sort of. On Wednesday, June 14, … Read more

Above the 40 (June 8, 2017) – The Market’s Bullish Push Through Thursday’s Trifecta

AT40 = 52.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.2 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary One out of three. The last event of Thursday’s Trifecta had the only notable impact on financial markets. With … Read more

Speculators In the Mexican Peso Last Did This At Oil’s 2014 Peak

On April 17, 2017, speculators turned bullish on the Mexican peso for the first time in 2 years. That point 2 years ago was a brief 1-week relief from on-going bearishness against the peso. The latest data on net non-commercial positions (speculators) show that the nascent bullishness in the peso carried over into a second … Read more

Above the 40 (April 7, 2017) – An Incrementally More Dangerous Stock Market

AT40 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 62.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (notable caveats explained below) Commentary The timetable for a May end to this period of extremely low volatility looks like … Read more

Above the 40 (March 22, 2017) – A Bear Pause Before D.C. Puts Its First Official Stamp On the Trump Rally

AT40 = 35.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.8 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary The sellers did their best to create follow-through selling to the previous day’s bearish breakdown. As has been the case … Read more

Oil-Related Plays Reverse Post-Election Gains

The big story coming out of the November presidential elections was the flurry of “Trump Trades” that soared on an incremental surge of optimism and expectations. Now the growing story includes the sprouting list of trades that have completely reversed post-election gains. The recent rapid decline in oil prices on the heels of surging U.S. … Read more

Above the 40 (March 8, 2017) – A Quiet Pre-Fed Breakdown for the Stock Market

AT40 = 43.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Times like these really put AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to … Read more

The Trump Volatility Trade: Nordstrom, Intel, Cognizant Technology, and Biotech

President Trump will address a joint session of Congress on Tuesday night, February 28th. Traders will no doubt have notepads ready to jot down the latest corporate targets of Trump’s wrath and praise. Trump’s words and tweets move markets, yet recent impacts have not lasted and have even worked in reverse of expectations. It is … Read more

Above the 40 (February 9, 2017) – The S&P 500 Celebrates “Phenomenal” Tax News

AT40 Status: 58.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 Status: 68.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX Status: 10.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary “We’re way ahead of schedule, I believe. And we’ll be announcing something, I believe, in the next two or three … Read more