ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary Over two years ago, a lethal virus forced the economy to shut down. The Federal Reserve was one of many to rush to the rescue with historic sums of liquidity. Today, the economy stubbornly runs hot, and the Fed is rushing to “shut down” financial markets to cool down economic activity “just … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The latest bear market bounce was an even closer call than the last one. This time around, Apple Inc (AAPL) failed to lead the S&P 500 away from the brink. AAPL closed below its October, 2021 low the previous day and warned technicians that the stock’s leadership was failing. So when AAPL … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: For a second straight day, retailers put pressure on the stock market. As retailers increase the pain of this bear market, bullish traders and investors lost one more place to “hide”. The Stock Market Indices The S&P 500 (SPY) plunged 4.0% and immediately dashed the prospect of leaving behind the price range … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: In the middle of last week, the S&P 500 was poised to hit bear market territory. Conditions were ripe with the stock market trading in deeply oversold territory and other indices toiling deeply in bear markets; a sharp rebound could happen at any time for any excuse. Both the S&P 500 and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The stock market finally dropped into deep oversold territory. Yet, on this third day of now extended oversold trading conditions, the S&P 500 (SPY) remains 98 points away from joining the NASDAQ and IWM in hitting a bear market (a 20% loss from its all-time high). The stock market is well on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The last “official” oversold period was 519 trading days ago. After 8 different intraday dips into and out of oversold territory, the stock market finally closed in oversold conditions. The signs of a bear market include the inability to stay out of oversold conditions. Today’s series of breakdowns combined with further deterioration … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Despite recent bouts of trading in or like a bear market, market breadth has somehow managed to avoid closing in oversold conditions. In fact, the last “official” oversold period was 518 trading days ago. Yet, since the NASDAQ topped out in November, market breadth has dropped into and out of oversold on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The expected first of the month buying only showed up in the last hour of trading, but it still made an important impression. The recovery created a picture perfect bounce off the oversold threshold. At the same time the S&P 500 perfectly tapped its May, 2021 closing low before recovering. The volatility … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: When Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine, financial markets took heavy hits. Overnight, I anticipated a drop into oversold trading conditions for the U.S. stock market. Those oversold trading conditions were surprisingly and exceptionally brief. The major indices gapped down well below their lower Bollinger Bands (BB), and I waited … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The week’s trading started with intraday extremes to the downside and upside. With such wild swings at work, it is tempting to look backward and conclude that timing bottoms and tops are possible. This reach for precision distracts from the discipline required to navigate through the volatility. Relying on trading and investing … Read more