A Trade War Truce Defies the Bad News Narrative for Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 28, 2019)

AT40 = 60.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Trade War The search for news bad enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates continues. The weekend began with news … Read more

Bullard Busts the Myth of A Big Rate Cut for July

In recent days, market pundits have excitedly talked about the prospects of the Federal Reserve getting so dovish that it would be willing to make a bold statement with a rate cut of 50 basis points for the July 31st announcement on monetary policy. Such a move would be quite dramatic given the Fed has … Read more

Forex Critical: Dollar Danger

It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more

From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more

Two Straight Fades Equals A Toppy Stock Market – Above the 40 (June 11, 2019)

AT40 = 39.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (downgrade from cautiously bullish) Stock Market Commentary The last 5 or 6 trading days have been good for bulls and buyers. It was fun while … Read more