T2108 Update (November 1, 2016) – Divergences Confirmed: Stock Market Sags to the Edge of Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (October 28, 2016) – Divergences Weigh Further on the Stock Market

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Bottoming Efforts: Deutsche Bank Follow-Through and First Solar Breakout

Deutsche Bank (DB) In early October, I pointed out the extreme in bearish sentiment on Deutsche Bank (DB) and the related overcrowding in bearish bets. After DB surged 14% off its latest all-time low, I decided to hold onto my call options which were a play on a bottom. So far, so good. DB printed … Read more

Gold and Silver Bid for A Bottom In Wake of September Jobs Report

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On October 5th, I noted how SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) both completed post-Brexit roundtrips as rumors of a eurozone tapering of QE triggered a fresh wave … Read more

T2108 Update (September 23, 2016) – The S&P 500 Fails to Close the Deal On the Latest Bullish Case

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Bottoming For Solar City Sets Up Next Pairs Trade With Tesla

A week ago, I discussed the setup for the next pairs trade going short Solar City (SCTY) and long Tesla Motors (TSLA). The technicals of SCTY and TSLA suggested a (short-term) bottom in the making. The latest charts suggest a confirmation of those bottoms, especially for Solar City. The follow-through confirmation came 2 days after … Read more

T2108 Update (September 21, 2016) – Volatility Plunges As the Stock Market Eagerly Celebrates Fed Tentativeness

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Setting Up the Next Pairs for Tesla Motors Versus Solar City

A little over two weeks ago I made the case for implementing a pairs trade on Tesla Motors (TSLA) long versus Solar City (SCTY) short. What unfolded from there rolled out according to my first scenario: SCTY continuing to sell-off and TSLA outperforming. Indeed, TSLA’s outperformance has returned to the all-time high level set earlier … Read more

Key Lessons from the Brazil ETF Trade

Back in October, 2009 When Brazil won the 2016 Summer Olympics, I heralded the news as an opportunity to invest in a country that promised to grow faster than the United States. The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped (EWZ) never quite matched its peak from 2008 but managed to ride the wave of a post-recession, commodity … Read more

An Important Correction to the Apple Trading Model

In early April, 2015, I simplified my Apple Trading Model (ATM). I examined the historical data to determine whether Apple’s (AAPL) open contained all the information needed to trade the stock on the day. I had an “ah ha” moment when I discovered that AAPL tended to trade in the same direction of its open. … Read more