Weakening Overbought Conditions Greet the New Year – Above the 40 (December 31, 2020)

Stock Market Commentary The extended overbought period still looks tenuous. For the second trading day in a row, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), broke down below the overbought threshold of 70% before closing at 73.0%. The major indices do not reveal these weakening overbought conditions. The … Read more

Alibaba Stock: How to Trade Technicals from Anti-Monopoly Fallout

U.S. traders and investors often but into or at least largely ignore news of anti-trust actions against publicly traded companies. Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA) was not as fortunate at least for today. Alibaba stock plunged as much as 17.5% before closing with a 13.3% loss in the wake of news that the State Administration for … Read more

A Close Call for Trading In the Extended Overbought Stock Market – Above the 40 (December 22, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) opened the day right on top of the 70% threshold for overbought conditions.

Stock Market Commentary The U.S. stock market quickly rebounded from the weekend’s jolt of pandemic news from Europe. The initial bout of selling created a close call for the extended overbought period. The comeback of buying picked the stock market off the threshold for overbought conditions but a sustained survival remains unsettled. While buyers convincingly … Read more

Key Overbought Threshold for the Stock Market In Time for the Holidays – Above the 40 (December 11, 2020)

Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the stock market stretched into an extended overbought rally. The stock market proceeded to relax from that stretch. Yet, the breadth indicators barely budged and allowed the overbought rally to reach a key overbought threshold and test of the extended overbought rally. The overbought period reached 20 days in … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Stretching for a Fresh Rally – Above the 40 (November 27, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 76.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Instead of Monday, … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Bang and a Whimper – Above the 40 (November 20, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #6 overbought) AT200 = 71.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 23.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market … Read more

Overbought Trading Conditions Emerge from Rush for Pandemic Recovery Stocks – Above the 40 (November 10, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 71.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #1 overbought) AT200 = 66.9%% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and confirmed breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 24.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The week of … Read more

Bearish Indices and Bullish Reopen Stocks Create Abrupt Rotation – Above the 40 (November 9, 2020)

AT200 (T2107) surged 10 percentage points to close near a 3-year high and a breakout above the post financial crisis downtrend.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 67.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 75.1%) AT200 = 63.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 25.8 (as low as 22.4) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary … Read more

A Gathering Storm of Confirmed 50DMA Breakdowns Fail to Trigger Oversold Signal – Above the 40 (October 30, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 26.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 38.0 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary A little over a week ago, the stock market looked poised to launch higher … Read more

Stock Market Support Melts Away, Delays Launch to Higher Prices – Above the 40 (October 26, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 32.5 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked like it was warming up from a period of cooling … Read more