ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
In the immediate wake of the details of the Republican plan for tax reform, home builders sold off sharply. While the stock market quickly moved on, the angst in the industry continued. Toll Brothers (TOL) CEO Douglas C. Yearley plainly claimed that the proposal to reduce the cap on the mortgage interest deduction would harm … Read more
Tri Pointe Group (TPH) was the last home builder stock I sold as a part of my last cycle of home builder investments. It was also my longest-standing holding; I only exited after the sell-off inspired by the first release of details for tax reform stopped me out of the stock. The stock had a … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in October, 2017 for September, 2017. At the time, I lamented having too small an exposure to home builders while the entire sector rallied nearly non-stop. I was counting on seasonal patterns to deliver at least one buyable dip ahead of the seasonally strong period starting in … Read more
The angst may already be fading away. Last week, I chronicled the carnage across the stocks of home builders that erupted in response to the Republican plan for tax reform that includes a reduction in the cap on the mortgage interest deduction. The sell-off that likely had roots in the extreme displeasure emanating from the … Read more
In my last review of the housing market, I ran out of time to comment on an emphatic statement from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) regarding its failure to influence the Republican plan for tax reform. The tax plan coming out of the GOP side of the House of Representatives includes a provision … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in September, 2017 for August, 2017. At the time, I described a growing rift between the data and the stocks of home builders. Instead of stumbling, housing stocks received a fresh breath of life and kicked up the momentum another notch higher in October. The iShares U.S. … Read more
I last wrote about earnings from KB Home (KBH) well over a year ago. While I kept tabs on the stock through my Housing Market Reviews, I never set up specific decision points for getting back into the stock. I finally created a decision point on October 12th when I made a hedged play of … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in August, 2017 for July, 2017. At the time, I described a change in tone that made me wary and even got me anticipating a larger pullback. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) was struggling below its 50-day moving average (DMA) since a 2-month period starting … Read more
AT40 = 63.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.6 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The stock market stubbornly held onto its bullish positioning despite the tumble of one of its biggest stalwarts: Apple (AAPL). AAPL … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in July, 2017 for June, 2017. The month from there marked a significant change in tone for home builders. The change in tone starts with the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) and its failure to hold support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) for the first … Read more