ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary: After celebrating slightly weak economic data last Friday, stock market buyers and bulls have trained their eyes on the December CPI (Consumer Price Index) report. The bullish trading action for the last two days suggests market participants are expecting weaker than expected inflation data. In turn, such a report would strengthen hopes … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: It took a mixed jobs report and soft economic data to spark late New Year’s cheer in the stock market. The December jobs report refreshed the message of a strong labor market whose unemployment rate has stayed between 3.5% and 3.7% the entire time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates. Yet, … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The Fed said “no” in 2022. The Fed said no to inflation, no to easy money, no to the housing market, and pointedly said no to a stock market pleading for relief from an accelerated cycle for normalizing monetary policy. Instead of the typical routine rushing to the rescue of a plunging … Read more
I will remember 2022 as the year of rolling crypto crises. One disaster after another undermined confidence in the ecosystem and forced changes in the bullish narratives for crypto. Through it all, the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) stepped up to the test as a technical signal for short-term bottoms in Bitcoin. These crises did … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Yesterday’s surge in the Japanese yen (FXY) may have exhausted enough sellers to clear the path for some holiday cheer in the stock market. Suddenly, the market seemed to transition from the heavy burdens of a stubbornly hawkish Fed to the alluring hopes from a lack of (scheduled) negative catalysts for the … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: A week ago, I cautioned that “the tenuous positioning is further weakened by a breakout of volatility and significant deterioration in the market breadth indicators.” The November CPI report showed the slightest surprise possible and faked out the stock market on the way to another hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: I expressed my surprise after the stock market soared in response to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s inflation-fighting speech. I thought Powell simply reiterated known information with more reminders of the Fed’s inflation-fighting commitment. Since then, two strong economic reports in a row have sent the stock market into rapid retreat from that … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Social unrest from fresh COVID lockdowns in China are already a distant memory for the U.S. stock market. Just as quickly as the stock market bearishly failed once again to hold overbought trading conditions, market breadth flipped the script to surge and rush back to overbought. Buyers and bulls celebrated a speech … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: The people of China have now suffered three years of various draconian lockdowns meant to contain the spread of COVID-19. The latest lockdowns remind a suffering populace that there remains no end in sight for this extended kind of public health authoritarianism. Apparently, the frustrations are boiling over enough to motivate people … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: A month ago, a CPI Shocker brought a bear market rally to an abrupt end and created an historically bad September. Today’s CPI Shocker, another inflation reading that came in hotter than expected (imagine that), generated a completely different, and bullish, response. The stock market gapped down at the open and buyers … Read more